Expert Analysis: Ireland v Australia

by Conor O'Shea

The November internationals have changed since the amateur days when teams used to come together for the first time since the previous summer's tour. Since 1995, the preparation for these games has become more and more intense and the amount of international rugby that is being played now means the excuses of rustiness are not acceptable anymore.

Australia in particular won't be able to claim they are not battle hardened. They will arrive in Dublin with two Tests played in the last two weeks; a loss to New Zealand - in Tokyo of all places - followed by a typically Australian victory over England in Twickenham last Saturday, although they are still missing some significant performers, not least their outstanding second row, Nathan Sharpe, and the midfield combination of Berrick Barnes and Stirling Mortlock.

But they do bring a lot of future stars with them, and with RWC 2011 on the horizon that gives this series an extra edge. The policy seems to be that Australia are willing to let the youngsters make mistakes and still stick by them, meaning they get the chance to develop and learn. In one sense, it helps that they, like Ireland, do not have massive playing numbers, which means that the alternatives aren't huge. They will be a force in two years although having said that they will also be, in typical Aussie style, primed for this match.

Looking at where they can hurt Ireland, the Australian front row will not creak as it has in recent years - Benn Robinson has been a real find for them - and it is an area Ireland are going to be raw in given the absence of Marcus Horan. The Australian back row is also very strong. We all know what Rocky Elsom can do and alongside him, they can call on either George Smith or David Pocock, the young tyro who is forcing the 100-cap veteran to up his game and took the starting jersey against New Zealand.

Genia and Giteau - Australia's star men

But it's at 9 and 10 where the real threat is. Australia have a star of the next decade in Will Genia and a world star of the present in Matt Giteau. Overall, they are a top three side in the world rankings so anyone who thinks this will can be chalked down as a formality of another Ireland win over the Aussies is deluding themselves. It will be tough, ultra-competitive rugby.

What of Ireland? They may come in slightly undercooked in terms of game time but it must be in their favour that they have a settled side that almost picks itself, and they have also had a huge number of training camps over the last number of years.

In terms of team selection you can never second guess Declan Kidney and he can pull out a few surprises, but I wouldn't expect many this time. In some ways, the Ireland 'A' game against Tonga on Friday night will give us a better insight into the future, just as the brilliant Churchill Cup win over the summer did.

The senior team is very settled, though Kidney has never been afraid to make changes when a player loses form. That is probably why there is so much conjecture about Ronan O'Gara at out-half. I expect Kidney to stick by him for next week. He has bailed out Ireland and Munster for the last decade and although you have the combination of a slow start to the season on O'Gara's part and Johnny Sexton's outstanding form for Leinster, I don't think we will see a change in selection yet.

However, Rog will know he has to deliver the goods because there is a viable alternative and just like Smith and Pocock for Australia, I expect the pressure to re-energise the older man.

With O'Driscoll, Ireland always have a chance

Elsewhere, Ireland have some positives to build a plan around. O'Gara may have a post Lions hangover, but Brian O'Driscoll is truly living up to his nickname of 'God'. How someone can play at the level he reaches over the period he has done it for is quite incredible. I would almost put him up there as the Michael Jordan of rugby. If he is on the pitch, no matter who Ireland are playing against, we have a chance.

There are one or two calls but the only other major issue, assuming O'Gara gets the nod over Sexton, will surround O'Driscoll's centre partner. Where Ireland can go for either the straight call between Gordon D'Arcy or Paddy Wallace. There are also the curve ball selections along the lines of bringing Tommy Bowe into midfield with Keith Earls joining Rob Kearney and Luke Fitzgerald in the back three.

I think the latter option will be discussed but discounted and expect them to stick with the D'Arcy-O'Driscoll axis. Other than the argument that the Leinster duo represent a tried and tested pair, I think the rules at the breakdown should make them even more of a factor. They have always been good at contesting the ball in the tackle area and under the present breakdown laws, they will have the leeway to do that even more.

Selection debates will get tougher

Kidney, Gert Smal, Les Kiss and Alan Gaffney have not made too many mistakes so far. Having said that, I have a feeling the selection debates to be more difficult by the time we play South Africa.

The concern is that there has been a morass of kicking in some games - including Australia v England - precipitated by the breakdown changes. My real hope for this November series is that Ireland will play positive rugby and try to keep the ball in hand.

They have the talent to do it, with Cian Healy's ball carrying ability added in alongside the likes of Stephen Ferris, David Wallace and Jamie Heaslip and Paul O'Connell and out wide, the pace and skill of Bowe, Fitzgerald and Kearney, and the playmaking of O'Driscoll and O'Gara.

You have to think we have the ability to go to a new level and there are a lot of reasons to be confident.