Heineken Cup: Quarter-Final Candidates

by Brendan Cole

Leinster and Munster are in pole position to secure home quarter-finals in the Heineken Cup after the first four rounds of the Pool Stages and the Irish pair may even end up as first and second seeds.

Ulster, despite their heroics in Ravenhill against Stade Francais, will likely have to wait another year with their mundane 17-12 defeat in Edinburgh leaving them needing a favour - possibly from Llanelli - to have a chance of getting ahead of other 'best second place' challengers.

The six automatic qualifier spots, meanwhile, could be divided between two countries: Ireland and France. England clubs would then be well positioned to take the best runner-up spots while Wales could find itself with no representative in the last eight.

Going from pool to pool, Munster look set to get to a potential first-seed total of 24 or 25 points after their magnificent win over Perpignan.

As an aside, those of us who had the temerity to predict a win from the French side should, of course, be placed in stocks for the week!

Doubters? Fetch the rotten veg!

In hindsight, the signs were there for anyone who wanted to look: Perpignan had, after all, been beaten by Treviso and didn't actually have a huge amount to add in terms of personnel for the home game. Munster had kept their extra gear well hidden, but it turned out to be there after all.......

Moving on, Northampton look like getting to 17, unless they can secure victory in Thomond.

In the relatively weak Pool Two, Biarritz have already taken a decisive lead but may struggle to win in Gloucester in the next round having had a soft enough time of it getting to 18. It depends on bonus points, but if the French kingpins add one over the next two fixtures and beat the Warriors at home in the last round, they will get to 23. That's quite likely.

Gloucester should then finish second with 16.

In Pool Three, Leicester, Clermont and the Ospreys are all still in with a shout. Clermont have the easiest fixture list, however, and if they beat the Ospreys at home in the next round will probably go on to top the pool with 21 points.

Leicester can also reach 21 but will have to beat the Ospreys away to do so and with qualification based on the head-to-head between the teams, Clermont will go through if they finish level on 21 points each. However, a bonus point win for either side against the Ospreys could give them a decisive edge.

And you have to admit that the Ospreys are still a force and can get to 20 or 21 if they see off Leicester at the Liberty Stadium and finish second behind Clermont. They could even win both of their remaining games and take the top seeding.

Stade Francais will almost certainly come out of Pool Four, probably with 23 points. Ulster look set to finish second and may get to 18: that total would have them beating Edinburgh at home with a bonus point and getting a result in Bath in the last round.

Ulster could still sneak through

Will it matter? Possibly. Ulster would be well advised to keep their shoulder to the wheel as that will put them in position to take advantage of any slip-ups elsewhere. They are currently set to finish just outside the top eight but anything can happen and they could yet scramble a quarter-final spot.

In Pool Five, Toulouse are likely to get through but will have to win a big head-to-head away from home against Sale Sharks to make sure. The Sharks, meanwhile, have to win in Cardiff in the next round to set up a 'winner takes all' clash in the last round.

Chances are that Toulouse will take that win over Sale and make it on 23 points, though of all the big guns they are possibly the most open to a surprise exit.

If Toulouse do win their next two games (the other is v Quins in France), Sale will probably finish second on 17.

Pool Six has become a shootout between Leinster and London Irish, with Llanelli and Brive both performing poorly. Both the top sides are likely to continue scoring bonus points in the next round, though Irish might not have things all their own way in Llanelli in the next round. Llanelli did, after all, beat Irish away from home earlier in the competition.

Final day clash will decide Leinster's fate

But a final day clash in London with both contenders on 20 points or Leinster on 20 and Irish on 19 will almost certainly decide the pool. In that scenario, you would fancy Leinster to do enough and take the pool on 24 points. Even if Leinster are beaten in London, they will have a very good chance of going through on 20 or 21 (and - maybe - facing Munster in the next round).

If they are beaten in the last game, Irish might finish on 19, 20 or 21 depending on how tight they keep things against Leinster and whether they can get the BP in Wales.

Should the above sequence of results play out, we would end up with something like this (bear in mind that try-count will decide the rankings in the event of a tie):

Heineken Cup Possible Q-F Ranking:

1. Munster (24/25)
2. Leinster (24)
3. Biarritz (23)
4. Stade Francais (23)
5. Toulouse (23)
6. Clermont (21)
7. Leicester (21) - (or Ospreys 20/21)
8. London Irish (20)

Non-qualifying second placers: Ulster (18), Sale (17), Gloucester (16), Northampton (14)

The hope for Ulster would be that London Irish slip up in Llanelli and finish on 16 or 17 points, opening up the chance that a team with 18 points can get through.

At the top, despite Leinster's romping wins over Llanelli, Munster and Leinster actually only have one try between them as things stand and Munster, if they maintain the stunning form of the Perpignan match, may just have the better chance of getting more with Northampton and Treviso coming up. A BP win over Northampton also can't be ruled out and that could put them a full point clear at the top.

Munster could then face London Irish in the next round with Leinster looking at a repeat of last year's final against Leicester Tigers, only this time with home advantage.

There would also be a French 'big four' mash-up in the middle, with the two biggest and nastiest emerging for semi-final time. Clermont and Stade Francais might just end up being the ones to get out.

Both Irish sides would have a great chance of making the last four and from there, even though they would face an open draw with heavyweight French opposition to overcome.

Even at this stage, you would fancy at least one Irish province to make it all the way to the final.