Guinness November Series: Ireland v South Africa

by Brendan Cole

Ireland take on the World Champions in what may come to be seen as the 'end of the beginning' of head coach Declan Kidney's gradual reshaping of the team.

Watch Ireland v South Africa live on RTÉ Two and RTÉ.ie (Ireland only) from 2pm. Live coverage also available on RTÉ Radio 1's Saturday Sport.

For obvious reasons, the selection of Jonathan Sexton ahead of Ronan O'Gara has dominated the headlines and it is by far the most important change. But the Leinster out-half's inclusion is part of a full picture that also includes Keith Earls on the wing and Paddy Wallace at inside centre. That pair have been picked despite the availability of Shane Horgan and Gordon D'Arcy, both of whom are fully fit, capable replacements with the proverbial 'bags of experience'.

Peter Stringer's return to the bench also hints that Kidney hopes to get the ball as quickly to his main strike weapons in dangerous areas - a constellation working around Brian O'Driscoll at outside centre. Among the many subplots to this game is that the removal of the long-standing need to protect the defensively frail O'Gara may spell the beginning of a new challenge for Tomás O'Leary. The importance of his 'insurance tackling' out wide may decline slightly as among a number of the exciting possibilities heralded by Sexton's inclusion is that Ireland may be able to replicate the superb linespeed of the current Leinster defence.

But the most exciting development is that this Irish backline has collectively got more speed and passing ability than arguably any selection of the last 20 years or more.

Sexton opens up new dimensions for Ireland

But the crucial change is at out-half where Sexton offers sound passing and kicking basics but also a personal breaking threat, and the speed to pass and then wrap around his centres and involve himself in the wider channels. Back play revolves around the extra man and essentially, there are two new threats for the South African defence to contend with in that regard.

The capacity for speedier delivery to the wide areas should also improve Rob Kearney's chances of making the type of slashing breaks perfected by Lee Byrne of Wales, which benefited hugely from the distribution of Gavin Henson. Add in Wallace's strength at operating close to a defence and checking it, O'Driscoll's full complement of attacking skills, and the speed of the wings and Ireland are potentially a very potent mix. All in all, it bodes well for the continued second flowering of the Ireland captain's incredible career.

Ireland v South Africa - George Hook's Expert View

Obviously, South Africa will have a lot to say about whether the remodelled Ireland backline will have a chance to really show what it can do. The Springbok forward pack, epitomised by the combination of huge weight and even bigger work ethic of Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield's touches of class in the second row, will represent a massive challenge for the Irish eight.

Paul O'Connell is the obvious focal point for resistance and if they do end up coping with South Africa in the tight Ireland will almost certainly have the Munster captain's leadership to thank. That said, he will have to be careful not take on too much as he was a magnet for South African turnover efforts when charging up off static ball during the Lions Tests this summer. Cian Healy and the back-row trio of David Wallace, Jamie Heaslip and Stephen Ferris will also need eye catching games with ball in hand if Ireland are to even approach parity.

Brussow and Burger - particular threat

Aside from the collective work ethic, the South African wing forwards are a particular threat. 'Fetcher' Heinrich Brussow will marshal the inside channels making any effort at crashing simple ball up 'one out' from the ruck fraught with danger, while Schalk Burger is likely to patrol the outside corridors with menace as he did for the Boks against the Lions this summer.

Ireland need to find it in them to tame that pair and win enough quick, effective ruck ball to make them a viable attacking force over multiple phases. The Lions showed it is possible. Even so, doing it this weekend represents a massive challenge.

Aside from the breakdown, the scrum is the other major area of concern. John Smit's move to hooker may be influential, while Botha's massive power in the locking position in particular presents a huge test to any opposition eight. It is true to say that John Hayes matched Tendai Mtawirara in the third test, but the caveat is that Botha was absent for that game. Fingers crossed.

Guinness November Series Blog: Brendan Cole looks at Jonathan Sexton's potential

In the lineout, the talismanic combination of Hayes, Jerry Flannery and O'Connell should be enough for Ireland to win 80% or so despite Matfield's athleticism and intelligent reading, and the entire Springbok unit's cohesion. On the other hand, Smit's throwing in may turn out to be slightly fallible if Ireland can get men in the air on their ball.

Kick and chase key for Boks

Second only to prioritising forward domination, the South African kick and chase - territory - game is an essential part of their plan. Morne Steyn is not a running threat but Rob Kearney, Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls will be severely tested by both his and Fourie Du Preez' kicking. After Kearney's superb displays in the summer, South Africa may well opt to look to the Irish wings, and the relatively inexperienced Earls in particular, for weakness. A pack can only stand so much pressure and Ireland need their back three and half-backs to play as clean a match as possible in the ping pong in order to avoid undue stress up front.

In terms of the Boks' attack, the centre pair of Wynand Olivier and Jaques Fourie play a fairly basic style and the major threat is the opportunism of Bryan Habana and Fourie Du Preez, both of whom can change a situation in an instant. Full-back Zane Kirchner has a zip about him but in truth, South Africa pass the ball so infrequently that their wide threat will only come into play if Ireland are well and truly crushed up front. The hope is that the men in green will cope up front and that good game management and the effective defensive system will limit the chances for the two key strike men.

Expert Analysis: Conor O'Shea

Typically, the referee is factored in at this point though given this November's events, he could easily have gone in at the top. In truth, Ireland couldn't have asked for better with Nigel Owens, the best in the business, taking charge.

Owens typically gives the attacker the benefit of both the doubt and an extra second while allowing a vigorous contest for the ball and if Ireland can provide the numbers and momentum to throw attacking ruckers past the ball, they should survive. As with Cullen, Sean O'Brien, an excellent breakdown forward, could turn out to be an important player.

This is a key match in the early part of Kidney's reign; one in which victory would cement the gains of the past year. On the other hand, a bad defeat would represent a significant setback and mean something of a return to the drawing board. Virtually all of Kidney's cards are on the table. The Boks' form has been mediocre of late and some key personnel are missing but they can be expected to raise their game with needle in the match-up and the carrot of beating the Grand Slam champions on offer.

This time, Ireland are primed to make a statement of intent.

Check out Paddy Power's RTÉ Ireland v South Africa specials.

Teams to play at Croke Park on Saturday at 2.30pm:

Ireland:
15 Rob Kearney
14 Tommy Bowe
13 Brian O'Driscoll (capt)
12 Paddy Wallace
11 Keith Earls
10 Jonathan Sexton
9 Tomas O'Leary
1 Cian Healy
2 Jerry Flannery
3 John Hayes
4 Donncha O'Callaghan
5 Paul O'Connell
6 Stephen Ferris
7 David Wallace
8 Jamie Heaslip

Replacements:
16 Sean Cronin
17 Tony Buckley
18 Leo Cullen
19 Sean O'Brien
20 Peter Stringer
21 Ronan O'Gara
22 Gordon D'Arcy

South Africa:
15 Zane Kirchner
14 JP Pietersen
13 Jaque Fourie
12 Wynand Olivier
11 Bryan Habana
10 Morne Steyn
9 Fourie du Preez
8 Danie Rossouw
7 Schalk Burger
6 Heinrich Brüssow
5 Victor Matfield
4 Bakkies Botha
3 BJ Botha
2 John Smit (capt)
1 Tendai Mtawarira

Replacements:
16 Bismarck du Plessis
17 CJ van der Linde
18 Andries Bekker
19 Jean Deysel
20 Dewald Potgieter
21 Ruan Pienaar
22 Jean de Villiers