Cheltenham Preview - Day 4
Friday 19 March 2010
by Barry McEneaney
3.20 totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3 miles 2 1/2 furlongs
The horse that determines the outcome of this year's Gold Cup could just be one that has almost no hope of winning and very little chance of claiming a place.
Carruthers is one of my favourite horses in training as it's almost always obvious when he's going to win. His bold front-running style obviously suits small fields where an uncontested lead is both easy to acquire and defend. Malcolm Bradstock's star has won all three times he's encountered heavy ground by an aggregate of over 75 lengths and because he hails from an unfashionable yard he's always overpriced. You wait for his optimum conditions and then you unload. Carruthers has won in a big field and he's also obliged on good ground, but these aren't his ideal conditions. Send him over here in the middle of winter and he would mop up in Graded races.
But he's an important factor this afternoon due to the influence he could have on the pace of the race, even if his own prospects are doomed to failure.
Second isn't something Tony MCoy is ever going to settle for in life and he'll be well aware that his quest for glory on Denman has been dealt a blow by the good ground at Prestbury Park this week. His best chance of winning the race is to set a ferocious pace and to hope that it forces Kauto Star into jumping errors.
Carruthers would most probably be a willing accomplice in this and there is a chance of an unsustainable pace being set when the tape rises. These two could cut each others throats up front, while the once-foot perfect Denman could find his jumping tested yet again.
The common consensus until recently was that Denman and Kauto Star were certain to fight out the finish, but that's far from certain. Denman was a hugely impressive winner of the Hennessy in November and many insisted he was back to his brilliant best after his well-documented heart problem, but he has also completed just one of his last three starts. The Hennessy win came in the second of those three starts and the runs either side of that were far from satisfactory.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies doesn't like leaving his horses in their boxes for too long. The yards record is a streaky one, with a terrifically high strike-rate followed by an abnormally low one, and that's probably due to the way he campaigns his runners. But he now seems to have embraced the patient approach with a number of his top horses and that paid dividends in the Champion Hurdle when reformed character Khyber Kim finished second to Binocular.
Twiston-Davies' Imperial Commander now comes into this race after an 83-day rest and that's a major positive. He's best fresh and should run a massive race.
His seasonal debut at Haydock saw him go down in a photo to Kauto Star and that indicates just how good he can be when fresh. However, on his second start a month later he finished 64 lengths behind Kauto Star in the King George at Kempton. That tough race might have finished him off as it has so many others who engaged in a battle with the great one. But when you factor in the fact that Imperial Commander was beaten 72l behind the same horse in the 2008 renewal of the race, before going on to win the Ryanair at the Festival, that eventuality seems less likely. Both those dismal efforts came on left-handed tracks (which he patently doesn't act on) after inadequate breaks. It could pay to retain faith in him.
Cooldine is the other threat to the big two and his seasonal debut at Leopardstown in the Lexus at Christmas where he was pulled up should be ignored as he coughed and scoped dirty. He showed marked improvement when going down narrowly in the Hennessy on his last start and while a literal reading of the form wouldn't single him out as a winner, there is cause for optimism. Willie Mullins' charge was one of the the most impressive winners of the RSA Chase in recent memory when bolting up last year. Those conditions seem certain to be replicated today.
Superlatives fail you when it comes to describing Kauto Star and the stats that say he can't win need to be overlooked when you consider how many trends he's bucked over the years. The fact Paul Nicholls' charge is the only horse in history to regain a Gold Cup gives you an idea of his brilliance and the magnitude of the task that Denman faces this afternoon. However, this renewal sees him at the shortest price he's ever been for any of his three Gold Cups, one of which he lost. You could make an argument that he's been priced up on the basis of his best ever performance which came last time out. Kempton offers a very challenge than Cheltenham and a really strong pace could give his opponents a chance of causing an upset. The most likely winner, but one to be opposed, just.
Cooldine and Imperial Commander are both each-way recommendations.
There is one final betting angle to this race and it concerns the forcast bet. Readers of this column will recall that the selections for the Queen Mother on Wednesday were Big Zeb win & place (winner @10-1) and Kalahari King each-way (3rd @ 9-2). Forpadydeplasterer (second) was the other to receive an honourable mention. The forcast paid €90.94, while the tricast paid a whopping €509.70, all to a €1 stake. Earlier in the week, Menorah (joint 3rd Fav @ 12-1) edged out Get Me Out Of Here (2nd Fav @ 9-2) and the forcast paid £61.92.
If you decide to back the selections you should consider combining them in forcasts. Conventional wisdom would dictate that you'd lash in Kauto Star, but the massive dividends listed above were only possible due to underperforming favourites. In a risk-reward analysis that may not prove the play.
One horse who came close to being an each-way selection was Tricky Trickster, but he has a lot to find on the ratings. He's a young, unexposed, progressive horse who cost connections a fortune and his target is the Grand National. National sorts have gone well in this race in the past and it's worth bearing in mind he won over 4m at Cheltenham, while he showed he wasn't totally devoid of pace by getting up over 3m at Newbury when Denman unseated. He'll get outpaced at some stage in the race, but should be staying on to some effect in the final two furlongs.
Combining Cooldine, Imperial Commander and Tricky Trickster for miniscule stakes could be a worthwhile bet for those iconoclasts out there if the unlikely - but not unthinkable - does happen.
If you've been following the herd all week, this isn't for you.
1.30 Carlito Brigante
2.05 Tawaagg
2.40 Restless Harry, Tell Massini
3.20 Imperial Commander (E/W) Cooldine (E/W)
4.00 Turthen
4.40 Meath All Star, Radium
5.15 Safari Journey
