Cheltenham Preview - Day 1
Monday 15 March 2010
by Barry McEneaney
1.30 Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle, G 1, 2m 1/2 f
Eight pesky hurdles stand between Dunguib and a second consecutive win at the Cheltenham Festival.
Last year's ultra-impressive Champion Bumper winner has headed the ante-post lists for this race since the market opened and has long-since assumed the mantle of Irish banker for the legions of punters who make the annual trip to the Cotswolds. Their week, and to a lesser extent that of the bookmakers at the track, could well be defined by the first race on the first day of the four-day National Hunt marathon.
Dunguib's second on his racecourse debut was the only defeat the son of Presenting has ever tasted in a career that now spans nine races. The form of last year's bumper could scarcely have worked out better, with a number of those put to the sword 12 months ago returning to the Festival with major claims in their respective races.
Four runs over obstacles have yielded four bloodless victories, with his last two wins coming in Grade 1 company. His latest success at Leopardstown in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle saw him account for a number of promising prospects without ever coming off the bridle, but such an occurrence isn't rare for a genuine freak.
Last year's win saw Dunguib pull hard until four furlongs from home and still have the energy to quicken 10 lengths clear of his nearest pursuer. Conventional wisdom dictates that horses that take such a keen hold in the early stages of any race compromise their chances of winning, but Dunguib defied the belief with ease. His high-cruising speed is such that he would certainly be Group-class on the Flat, where the stronger early pace would play to his strengths, and a campaign on the level has already been mooted by his trainer.
While Irish runners have a superb record in this race, many short-priced raiders have been eclipsed by supposedly lesser lights and it's prudent to pick holes in hot favourites just as it is to build a case and find positives for outsiders. But the negatives aren't easy to find.
Dunguib's optimum conditions are undoubtedly strongly run races on decent ground, but his novice season has seen him maintain winning ways on heavy ground of a dawdling early pace, so where are the chinks?
The crabbing has come in the jumping department, where a lack of fluency at his hurdles last time out caused some to question his credentials for the hustle and bustle of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Former champion jockey and Channel 4 pundit John Francome opined that Dunguib's untidy jumping could be attributed to sore shins. His failure to clear his hurdles, as well as a tendency to land on his hind rather than front legs after the odd hurdle have been offered up as evidence of an underlying physical problem. Fenton has dismissed such a worry and it's inconceivable that a trainer that has been so frank and forthright with the betting public would fail to mention what would be a major issue.
Those eager to take the favourite on have pointed to the fortunes of last year's favourite in the race, Cousin Vinny, as a cautionary tale for Dunguib backers. Having unseated on his last start before the Festival some pundits questioned his position at the head of the market for the 2009 renewal of the race. On the day Cousin Vinny was undone not by his jumping, but by bumping into better rivals on the day. He still managed to claim fifth, beaten less than five lengths. There's little doubt that Dunguib is a superior horse to Willie Mullins' charge and the tactical speed Dunguib possesses means jumping errors can be recovered from quickly.
A slowly run race would dampen enthusiasm somewhat, but this contest is always run at a decent clip and if the partnership stays intact they should emerge impressive winners.
The main dangers are the Mullins duo Blackstairmountain and Flat Out, the Phillip Hobbs trained Menorah, Jonjo O'Neills Get Me Out Of Here and the Nicky Henderson pair of Oscar Whisky and General Miller.
This is a race where racecourse experience is paramount - be it from the Flat, in the bumper sphere or over hurdles. With only four lifetime starts Oscar Whisky and General Millar could be vulnerable in what is often a rough race.
Flat Out, Blackstairmountain and Menorah would seem sounder alternatives, but each has negatives to overcome. Flat Out and Blackstairmountain (who looks the strongest of the Mullins runners) have each made only one start over hurdles and you have to go back 18 years to find a winner with a similar profile. This stat could be skewed this year as opportunities have been limited due to a harsh winter, but intensive schooling can't make up for racecourse experience.
Menorah ran a breathtaking race at Kempton over Christmas, hammering Henderson's Bellvano in the process and clocking an impressive time, but he's also been beaten twice over hurdles. His last run saw him edged out in a strangely run race at Ascot, where jockey Richard Johnson didn't cover himself in glory. If he could replicate his Kempton form he'd be a danger to all, but an easy two miles at Kempon is very different from the conditions he face on Tuesday afternoon. Good horses find a way to win and 13 of the last 14 winners of this race won last time out, giving added credence to that adage.
Get Me Out Of Here looks the most likely fly in the ointment. A bumper win at Uttoxeter followed up by two novice hurdle wins at Worcester and Ffos Las in modest company didn't scream Supreme Novices' winner, but his penultimate outing at Newbury in handicap company saw him beat a decent field in convincing fashion.
His last start came in the Totesport Trophy, also at Newbury, in what is one of the season's most competitive handicaps. Having been raised a stone for his last win, he went on to see off those rivals where he won going away. That victory marked him out as a strong candidate for this race. Get Me Out Of Here was still slightly keen on his fifth lifetime start , but travelled strongly in a rough race that will have matured him no end. Having clouted the last - where he sustained a nasty gash - he showed a professional, determined attitude to battle back after being headed and appeared to quicken going to the line. The cut may have been superficial, adrenaline may have taken over and helped him home, but it certainly didn't aid his cause. The undefeated mount of Tony McCoy received a welcome form boost on Saturday when Totesport fifth Oldrik (beaten 10 ½ lengths) bustled up handicap good thing Qaspal (also ridden by AP) when finishing second in the Imperial Cup. A lack of course form or experience of an undulating track is a slight worry, but the same comment applies to a number of his rivals.
Get Me Out Of here seems the strongest each-way alternative to Dunguib and those opposing Dunguib should place their bets with Paddy Power as they are refunding the win portion of losing bets if Dunguib does deliver (the all-important T&Cs should be studied carefully). There's plenty of method in this apparent madness as liabilities on the favourite will be kept low and those occasional punters not worried about securing the best early price are unlikely to opt for other outlets once they've refuelled their telephone betting/online accounts or darkened the doors of their local Paddy Power shop. That gives the bookmaker plenty of opportunity to get back on level terms, and then some, over the four-day puntathon.
2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, G 1, 2 m
Captain Cee Bee returns to Prestbury Park two years after giving JP McManus a 1-2 in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. The intervening years have seen his career curtailed by injury, but trainer Eddie Harty appears to have got his stable star back to his very best.
His novice chase campaign began at Naas in December where he overcame his long absence to beat the talented but frustrating Zaarito by a neck, with subsequent Irish Arkle winner An Cathaoir Mor back in third. On his next start at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival Captain Cee Bee ran in to then Arkle favourite Sizing Europe and more than appeared to have that one's measure when he fell at the last after failing to get his landing gear out in time. His final Festival prep at Naas pretty much went to script, but there was another mistake at the last before he coasted home. Making mistakes over hurdles is one thing, but fences are less forgiving and while a worthy favourite with a clear round, doubts must remain in that area. Stats fans will also point out that as a nine-year-old (only two have won) he has a major negative to overcome.
Sizing Europe has been almost foot-perfect in the jumping department and the quality of his fencing means he shouldn't be far away. His four-race unbeaten run in novice chases may be slightly fortuitous due to Captain Cee Bee's mishap at Leopardstown, but in his other races he has accounted for useful performers in Osana (who reopposes) and Major Finnegan. His record at Cheltenham is one of contrasts, with an impressive win in the Greatwood two seasons ago followed up by a dismal effort in that year's Champion Hurdle, where as 2-1F he found nothing on the run for home and finished 14 of 15 runners. He, like Captain Cee Bee, would be longer in the tooth than the average Arkle winner, though he is a year younger at eight.
The English challenge is spearheaded by Henrietta Knight's Somersby and Nicky Henderson's Riverside Theatre. Somersby's third in last season's Supreme Novices' looks superb in light have what the winner Go Native and second home Merdermit , albeit to a lesser extent, have achieved over hurdles this season. Unbeaten in two starts over fences, the only major negative would appear to be the long gap (101 days) since his last run. Riverside Theatre boasts strong form and goes well fresh, but his lack of experience of the track has to be viewed as a negative. All three of Nicky Henderson's Arkle winners had run at Cheltenham prior to registering successes in this race. Trainers are creatures of habit and this would seem a strange one to break.
Willie Mullins' Sports Line is probably the final runner to consider in a race where outsiders have a poor record and he has a major chance, despite his defeat in the Irish Arkle last time out. Ruby Walsh's mount lost little caste in finishing second to An Cathaoir Mor when you consider that he helped force an unsustainable pace with blistering early fractions. Front-runners Take The Breeze and Major Finnegan were legless in the latter stages of the race and finished 20 lengths behind the winner, while Sports Line maintained his challenge to go down by just 1 ¾ lengths.
When you factor in what amounted to a poorly-paced ride, that battling display was hugely impressive. Seven lifetime starts have now resulted in four wins and three seconds, with two of those losses coming on right-handed tracks where Sports Line isn't at his best. Those horses that try to make all have an awful record in this race, but both trainer and jockey will be well aware of that and the fact he agreed to settle just off the lead here - albeit off a strong pace - bodes well for his chances. If he can be ridden with even more restraint he represents value, with the one imponderable being his ability to handle better ground.
Some pundits believe that he won't due to his physique, while his pedigree suggests he will. His trainer has been targeting this race with him for quite some time, knowing what to expect on the going front, and Cheltenham's watering policy should give him every chance of denting some lofty reputations.
3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle, Grade 1, 2m 1/2f
An unsatisfactory build-up to the Champion Hurdle has seen the waters muddied by connections of two of the leading contenders in the form of Binocular and Solwhit.
The will they/wont they conundrum began with Nicky Henderson's Binocular last month when the trainer ruled out a Champion Hurdle bid for the horse that finished third in last year's renewal due to 'a minor, yet significant, muscle problem'. The horse was to be put away for the season, bookmakers removed him from ante-post lists and he was matched at the ceiling price of 1000 (999-1) on Betfair. The physios employed by the Seven Barrows handler must be something to behold because less than a month later he's very much on course for the race.
The Solwhit seven-day saga began on 8 March when trainer Charles Byrnes reported that the horse had scoped dirty and was put on a course of antibiotics.
Byrnes said: 'There has to be a serious doubt about him running.'
The story and the trainer's comments prompted a drift on the exchanges, but 30 was the biggest price matched after the news broke. The price then contracted before a second bulletin informed fans that his chances of running were less than 50-50. Another drift ensued, but the horse was soon being backed again and was matched at 7.8 before the market was suspended. A final scope last Saturday was to prove key to his participation.
'I've made a decision and he's travelling over,' said Byrnes.
'He scoped clean earlier this morning so he will travel over.
'There was no virus or anything, none of the other horses have coughed so it really is a bit of a mystery.'
The Byrnes yard was in the headlines for all the wrong reasons at the end of January when an employee was found guilty of laying the stable's horses - including Solwhit - to lose back in 2008. John O'Gorman received a paltry four-month ban from the Turf Club when a (still inadequate) 12-month suspension could have been handed down by the powers that be.
Actions have always spoken louder than words with this stable and monitoring the market pre-race will tell you everything you need to know about the horse's well-being. Reach for the remote, press the mute button, and compare the morning price, the first live show and the likely SP. Positive market vibes, as will all this stables runners, means a big run is imminent.
On all known form Solwhit has an outstanding chance and boasts arguably the strongest place claims of any runners in the race. His only negative (bar the obvious) is a lack of course form, which is often crucial in this contest. But such is his versatility with regards to tracks, trips and going that this is a negative with a very small 'n'.
Binocular has looked a shadow of his former self this year and while he would have every chance at his best, the physios will really have had to work the oracle to get him back to that level.
Starluck would appear to be a better horse on a flatter track and this trip at his course stretches his stamina to the maximum, while Zaynar races like a stayer in the making. The reapplication of cheekpieces should sharpen him up, but Barry Geraghty has passed over him in favour of Punjabi. The latter is a real danger and is overpriced when you consider the reigning champion's record at the Festival. His form is that of a spring horse and Nicky Henderson should have him spot on for the race that matters.
Merdermit can tend to hit a flat spot in his races and may be better is a smaller field, but he should be staying on at the death. Celestial Halo was a good second last year, but could once more find his chances compromised by having to do too much of the donkey work, while the rejuvenated Khyber Kim has struggled to replicated his early season form in the spring.
Saving what could well be the best to last, Noel Meade's Go Native enters the race with outstanding claims. Last year's Supreme Novices' hero travels strongly and has a devastating turn of front that has already seen him claim the first two legs of the WBX £1m bonus series at Newcastle and Kempton. Comparisons have been made to former stablemate Harchibald, but a tendency to idle is a very different trait to that exhibited by Meade's last live Champion Hurdle contender.
Much has been made of Meade's poor form after Christmas and a disappointing record at the Festival. He rightly asserts that there is a plethora of big pots to be won all year round and having all his team peaking for four days on March isn't a priority. However, Meade has a million reasons to make sure that Go Native is at his best for this contest and the structure of his campaign won't hinder his chances. Incidentally, the Meath trainer has bucked the trends this year by firing in four winners in the last 14 days and most of his other losers in recent weeks have been running sound races.
It's easy to envisage a Hardy Eustace v Harchibald scenario in the closing stages, with Solwhit and Go Native the protagonists this time around. Jockey Paul Carberry will be playing his cards late, but if the fuel in the tank holds out he should lay some old ghosts to rest.
Selections:
1.30 Dunguib
2.05 Sports Line
2.40 Bensalem
3.20 Go Native
4.00 Another Jewel
4.40 Quevega
