Conor McMorrow analyses the results of the Red C ''Recall'' poll for RTÉ, which largely reflect what has been seen in the early count results.
Michael D Higgins will become the ninth President of Ireland as all early count results are reflecting the findings of a Red C ''Recall'' poll carried out for RTÉ.
Although counting of votes in the two referendums will not begin until Saturday, the RTÉ Red C poll has shown that the referendum on judges' pay is set to be passed. The poll suggests that four voters have voted in favour of the amendment for every one that has voted against.
As soon as ballot boxes were opened it became clear that Michael D Higgins would win the Presidential election, but the RTÉ poll suggests that the Government can expect a nail-biting day tomorrow as votes are counted in the referendum on Oireachtas Inquiries.
The ''recall'' poll shows that voters were evenly divided on the Oireachtas Inquiries referendum and, at this juncture, it appears that the result is too hard to call.
Between 3pm on polling day (Thursday) and 10.30am on Friday, Red C conducted 1,000 interviews with people who had voted. A random sample of those who had completed pre-election polls with Red C was contacted by telephone for the poll.
The dramatic events that unfolded on The Frontline programme last Monday night appear to have been instrumental in influencing the outcome of the Presidential election.
More than 25% of voters changed their minds about who to give their first preference vote to in the final week of the campaign and Seán Gallagher lost more than half of those who changed their minds.
The Red C research found that 28% of voters switched their first preference vote in the final week of the campaign, with 58% of them switching from Gallagher to Higgins.
The poll also found that 55% of voters claim that the recent controversy surrounding Gallagher affected their final decision either ''a lot'' (35%) or ''a little'' (20%), while 45% of voters say the controversy did not impact on their decision at all.
The Red C poll of where second preference votes are likely to go provide further evidence that Mr Higgins is certain to win the contest. He has garnered a considerably higher number of second preference votes than any of the other candidates.
According to the poll, Mr Higgins has got 25% of respondents' second preference votes, followed by David Norris who got 12%, Gay Mitchell (11%) and Gallagher (10%).
Red C also asked voters to score, out of 10, the importance of a series of candidate characteristics in influencing their decision of who to give their first preference vote to.
Respondents said that honesty and integrity came top (8.8 out of 10) and ''the best candidate to represent Ireland abroad'' was ranked second (8.54 out of 10). ''Experience/qualifications'' (7.79) came next, followed by ''Good for jobs/economy'' (6.91), ''Independence'' (6.51) and ''agree with political views'' (6.39).
As was widely anticipated throughout the campaign, the RTÉ poll has shown respondents overwhelmingly supporting the referendum on judges' pay.
With the Presidential election all over - bar the declaration in Dublin Castle - the most exciting action of the weekend may come in tomorrow's counting of votes in the Oireachtas Inquiries referendum.
The margin of error in the RTÉ Red C ''recall'' poll is 3% so the poll comes with a stronger health warning than in more conventional polls. Respondents are evenly split on the Oireachtas Inquiries question and taking the margin of error into account, the outcome of tomorrow's count for this referendum is impossible to call.
As the overall results of likely first preference votes are in line with early count results, it appears that Gay Mitchell will garner fewer than 10% of the first preference votes. That means he will have performed considerably worse than Austin Currie's 17% in the 1990 Presidential election.
Fine Gael Cabinet ministers will be anxious ahead of counting in the Oireachtas Inquiries referendum as a Government defeat would mark an extremely poor day for the party whose candidate has performed disastrously in the Presidential election and Eithne Loftus was excluded after the third count in the Dublin West by-election.
As results from both elections come in, and one of the referendums is by no means secured, Fine Gael faces into a tough pre-Budget period.
The heady days of multiple seat wins in the general election last February are now just a distant memory for Fine Gael.
Conor McMorrow
