An analysis of Red C polls conducted during the Presidential election campaign shows that the surge in support for Seán Gallagher began with Fine Gael and Labour voters, and to a lesser extent Independents.
He only began attracting the majority of Fianna Fáil voters after his initial rise in the polls - and they stayed with him to the end, unlike the Independents and Fine Gael voters who deserted him in the last days of the campaign.
The Red C polls - carried out for the Sunday Business Post and Paddy Power during the campaign, and for RTÉ in a "recall poll" after the voting - include a breakdown of the party allegiance of his supporters.
In a poll published on 25 September, Mr Gallagher had the support of 11% of the electorate. This was made up of 19% of Fianna Fáil supporters, 9% of both Fine Gael and Labour, 4% Sinn Féin and 15% Independents.
On 6 October, his overall support jumped to 21%. However, his backing from Fianna Fáil supporters was virtually unchanged - up one point to 20%. The big rise was in Fine Gael supporters (up 16 points to 25%), Labour (up eight to 17%), Sinn Féin (up four to 8%), and Independents (up seven to 15%).
His support jumped again 10 days later, up a staggering 18 points to 39%. This happened after the first comments on his links with Fianna Fáil, and perhaps as a result he more than doubled his support among Fianna Fáil voters, up 34 points to 54%. He also increased among other groups of voters - Fine Gael voters (up 18 to 43%); Labour (also up 18 to 35%); Sinn Féin (up six to 14%); and Independents (up 23 to 45%).
This poll, putting him in the lead for the first time, had an impact on both Fianna Fáil and Labour supporters the following week, in the final poll during the campaign, published on 23 October, which gave him 40% of overall support. Among Fianna Fáil voters, his support increased by nine points to 63%; his backing among Fine Gael voters slipped by just three to 40%, but among Labour voters it was down 15 to 20%; it was up two to 16% among Sinn Féin voters, and up one to 46% among Independents.
But the "recall" poll conducted for RTÉ after people had voted showed exactly how his support collapsed in the final days. His support among Fianna Fáil voters was virtually unchanged, down one to 62%. But among Fine Gael voters it was down 17 to 23%; among Labour voters it was down six to 14%; among Sinn Féin voters down six to 10%; and among Independents down 24 to 22%.
The collapse in his support was most marked in Dublin, where it dropped 17 points (from 33% to 16%) between the final Sunday Business Post poll and the "recall" poll, compared to a drop of 11 in the rest of Leinster (42% to 31%); 13 in Munster (46% to 33%); and seven in Connacht-Ulster (38% to 31%).
David McCullagh
