The Northern Elections - Back To The Past or Back To The Future?

Tommie Gorman Northern Editor

An SDLP promotional video, pitched to energise party activists for the Westminster elections, includes some of the theme music from the film 'Dances With Wolves'. It's wolf season in the North once more when politicians have to scrap for their lives.

18 Northern Ireland Westminster seats will be decided on 5 May. Two SDLP members, John Hume and Seamus Mallon, as well as the Ulster Unionist, Martin Smyth, are retiring. All the other 15 outgoing MPs are seeking re-election.

At the close of business in the House of Commons, the distribution of the 18 Northern seats was as follows: six DUP, five Ulster Unionists, four Sinn Féin and three SDLP. Less than a fortnight before polling day a leading firm of bookmakers was suggesting voters would return ten DUP, five Sinn Féin, two SDLP and one UUP.

Eleven of the 15 outgoing MPs seeking re-election to Westminster were successful in the 2003 Assembly contest. But voters have not been able to assess their performance in the Stormont arena because the institution has been suspended since October 2002.

Do elections give Northern voters the opportunity to pass judgement on the most able, committed promoters of democratic values? Or does the dynamic of a looming election inhibit political movement and progress? Arguments can be made to support both views. But the reality is one more Polling Day will take place on 5 May. In the tradition of elections it will produce winners and losers and this particular contest will have significant implications for the short and medium term future of unionism and nationalism.

David Trimble Faces battle in Upper Bann

Since he was elected Ulster Unionist leader in September 1995, David Trimble has survived countless efforts to topple him. Now 60-year-old Trimble, the great survivor, faces his most serious challenge to date. The DUP's David Simpson is again contesting the Upper Bann seat Trimble retained with more than 2,000 votes to spare four years ago. If Trimble loses, his position as party leader will also come under pressure.

Ian Paisley DUP smells blood

Ian Paisley's DUP smells blood. The defection of the outgoing Lagan Valley MP, Jeffrey Donaldson, from the UUP to the DUP in January 2004 gave Rev Paisley's party a majority of unionist seats at Westminster for the very first time. This election provides the DUP with an opportunity to confirm and enhance their dominance.

In his 80th year the DUP leader is fired up by the notion of not just becoming the strongest voice of unionism: there's also the possibility of taking nine and possibly ten of the North's 18 Westminster seats. For a party that eight years ago was peripheral, indeed shunned, the 21st century has brought a reversal of fortunes.

Mark Durkan Hoping to retain Hume seat

The SDLP's 44-year-old Mark Durkan is the other leader under severe scrutiny on 5 May. As happened with the DUP and the UUP, the SDLP lost its position as the main representative of its community to Sinn Féin in the 2003 Assembly elections. Now it will compete with Sinn Féin for nationalist hearts and minds once more. The contest for the Hume seat in Foyle, between Durkan - Hume's successor as leader of the SDLP - and Sinn Féin's Mitchel McLaughlin will have consequences well beyond Derry's walls. Mark Durkan took over the SDLP reins in November 2001 so this is his first Westminster election as party leader.

Mitchel McLaughlin Up against Durkan in Foyle

What about the middle ground - is there no middle ground in the North? The issue is sometimes raised by those looking in from the outside with an air of duty and disdain. The blunt response is May elections are unlikely to produce MPs from anywhere but the four main power blocs. While the Alliance Party did manage to hold its six seats in the 2003 Assembly elections, the first past the post Westminster race is a different matter.

The Women's Coalition, a symbol of new beginnings at the time of the Good Friday Agreement, isn't even fielding Westminster candidates. Its two Assembly members, Jane Morrice and Monica McWilliams, lost their seats in the 2003 Assembly elections.

One view is that the North gobbles up those who seek to find new ways: they are tossed aside by a divided society attempting to emerge from more than 30 years of Troubles, indeed some would say 800 years of division. But there is another possibility. Could parties that up to now have been comfortable on the outside now realise there may be a different way?

Tommie Gorman is RTÉ's Northern Editor

Latest Audio & Video from the Northern Ireland campaign trail

Morning Ireland: Brian Feeney, political analyst, considers the possible results in the 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland >>

Six One News: Tommie Gorman, Northern Editor, reports as voters in Northern Ireland prepare to go to the polls >>

Morning Ireland: Suzanne Breen, Northern Editor of the Sunday Tribune, outlines claims in the Sunday World Newspaper about a DUP candidate >>

Prime Time: Elections could see end for North's middle ground >>

Six One News: Tommie Gorman, Northern Editor, reports from Belfast >>

Morning Ireland: Jeffrey Donaldson of the DUP and Basil McRae of the Ulster Unionists express confidence ahead of polling day >>

Morning Ireland: Demand soars for Northern Ireland postal votes >>

Morning Ireland: Tommie Gorman, Northern Editor, reports on the campaign >>

5-7 Live: Tommie Gorman and Noel Whelan of The Irish Examiner discuss the campaign >>

Prime Time: DUP and Sinn Féin set to make gains >>