QUICK TAKE

Seats 4
Candidates 12
Population 105,571
Communities include Ennis, Scariff, Kilkee, Kilrush, Shannon and Lisdoonvarna

CANDIDATES

James Breen Independent
Pat Breen FG
Joe Carey FG
Murt Collins PD
Senator Brendan Daly FF
Senator Timmy Dooley FF
Cllr Pascal Fitzgerald LAB
Tony Killeen FF
Cllr Brian Meaney GP
Cllr Tony Mulcahy FG
Anna Prior SF
Cllr Madeleine Taylor-Quinn FG

BACKGROUND

Clare, a four-seater, could prove to be one of the prize battles of Election 2007. Currently it has 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 FG and 1 Independent.

The big surprise last time round was that Independent and dark horse James Breen topped the poll. Formerly a member of Fianna Fáil, he ran as an independent on the Ennis General Hospital ticket when he failed to get selected to run on the ticket by Fianna Fáil.

Also this time round sitting Fianna Fáil TD Síle De Valera is not running so there is intense competition between the three Fianna Fáil candidates, Junior Minister Tony Killeen, Senator and former TD Brendan Daly, and Senator Timmy Dooley.

Already there is internal wrangling in the party about carving up the constituency for canvassing purposes to maximise their chances of winning three seats. All three candidates do not want to be confined and have expressed the wish to be free to canvass the entire county.

It is likely that Tony Killeen will hold his seat, but the controversy about his representations to seek the early release of prisoners could affect his vote. Senator Timmy Dooley is putting up an extremely visible campaign and will be very disappointed if he does not win the party's second seat here. Senator Brendan Daly is a seasoned campaigner with a lot of experience and cannot be ruled out.

There is one Fine Gael seat in the constituency, currently held by Pat Breen, joined this time on the ticket by Senator and former TD Madeline Taylor Quinn, and Cllr Joe Carey, a son of the former long-standing FG deputy Donal Carey.

The PDs are running candidate Murt Collins, from the west of the county, Sinn Féin is running Anna Prior, and Labour is running Cllr Paschal Fitzgerald, and Cllr Brian Meaney is standing for the Greens.

The big battle will be for the fourth and final seat which could well be between the Greens' Brian Meaney and Independent James Breen. Meaney also has a very visible campaign touring the constituency in his Green bio diesel van, and with the current water controversies in Galway and Ennis could benefit if there is a national swing to the Greens.

James Breen cannot be ruled out given his excellent performance last time out and the fact that he's well known in the constituency. But it is going to be a very tough and tight election for all independents and that could stand against him getting such a high first preference this time round.

-Cathy Halloran, RTÉ Mid-West Correspondent

PREDICTIONS

This four seat constituency can be a bit unpredictable sometimes. Think Moosajee Bhamjee's historic win for Labour in 1992 and Independent candidate James Breen topping the poll in 2002. Breen, who left Fianna Fail after he was not given the green light to stand as a party candidate, polled an impressive 9,721 first preferences votes. It is believed he could shed quite a bit of that vote this time and still get elected.

There should be no such thing as a safe seat but Minister of State Tony Killeen will be elected. He might have had to weather much controversy over representations made on behalf of a convicted murderer but it's unlikely to damage him on Election Day.

With Sile de Valera not running it is up to either Senator Timmy Dooley  or  veteran Brendan Daly, now 67, to hold the second Fianna Fail seat. Despite Dooley's energetic canvassing, internal party research is reported to have found that Daly is picking up twice as much of de Valera's old vote.

For Fine Gael, the strategy is curious. They selected two candidates at convention, sitting TD Pat Breen and Councillor Tony Mulcahy from Shannon. Then two more candidates were added, former TD Madeleine Taylor Quinn and Councillor Joe Carey, son of ex TD Donal. How all this will work out is unclear, but many on the ground feel Breen is safe and Carey stands the best chance of Fine Gael taking a second seat.

To do this he would have to beat off the Greens' Brian Meaney, who is expected to poll well and has an outside chance of a seat. Also it would mean that James Breen was a one hit wonder. Breen has been particularly vocal on the biggest issues on the ground, which are the futures of Ennis Hospital and Shannon Airport. But whether he is seen to have achieved anything from the Independent benches could ultimately decide his fate.

The prediction then is: Tony Killeen, Pat Breen and Brendan Daly all to be elected. Then it's between James Breen, Brian Meaney and possibly Joe Carey for the last seat. Breen is still perhaps in the best position as they approach the run-in.

-Micheál Lehane, 'The Week In Politics' Reporter

For all of his travails, the safest seat is probably still that of Tony Killeen. There is also a belief that James Breen will be returned. An MRBI poll for TG4 suggested that Brendan Daly would take a second seat for Fianna Fáil. But the word is that Timmy Dooley has been doing a massive amount of canvassing and he could well overtake his Seanad colleague.

Amid the Fine Gael collapse in 2002, the party still got 25% of the Clare vote. There is certainly a seat here and outgoing TD Pat Breen is seen as the best-placed candidate. That would mean no change in Clare - 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind.

Now, that all makes perfect sense but, as we have seen, Clare voters have an unpredictable streak. The wildcard this time could well be Tony Mulcahy, the man who shocked many in his own party when he was chosen at the Fine Gael selection convention.

He is also the only candidate from Shannon Town - and Clare's population is increasingly based in the south of the county. He may not be there at the end, and the chances of Fine Gael taking a second seat are very small. But do not rule out a few more twists and turns before the final result is announced.

- Rachael English and Nick Coffey from RTÉ's The Election Book

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