The population of this constituency stood at 133,745 in 2006, having increased by 9% since 2002. It is primarily rural in character although roughly 40% of the population live in urban-settings.

In addition to Kilkenny City, the main towns are Carlow, Bagenalstown, Tullow, Thomastown, Castlecomer, Graignamanagh and Callan. Kilkenny was a 'hub' town under the National Spatial Strategy while Carlow now falls within Dublin’s commuter belt.

Agriculture remains a mainstay of the local economy given the abundance of excellent farmland.

In 2006, the latest year for which there is census information, there were proportionally more construction workers in Carlow-Kilkenny than nationally (10% as opposed to 8.8%), so inevitably the collapse in the sector has caused job losses. Decentralisation of public services has benefited the region.

Constituency Boundaries: There has been no change since 2007.

Seats: Five

2007 Quota: 11,276

2011 Candidates

Sitting TDs: Bobby Aylward (FF), Phil Hogan (FG), MJ Nolan (FF), John McGuinness (FF), Mary White (GP)

TDs not seeking re-election: MJ Nolan (FF)

Sean Donnelly's analysis:

Fianna Fáil put in a big performance in this constituency in 2007, winning three of the five seats but will probably have to settle for just one at the next election. MJ Nolan has retired and the remaining two outgoing FF deputies Bobby Aylward and John McGuinness will fight it out for the single party seat likely to be on offer. Fine Gael will take a second seat with Senator John Paul Phelan likely to join outgoing deputy Phil Hogan. But with Fine Gael now aiming to be in government they will be aiming for a third seat, with Pat Deering well placed to take the single Carlow seat. Labour will hope to win back the seat previously held by former Ceann Comhairle Seamus Pattison with Kilkenny-based Ann Phelan the one most likely, but Carlow-based Des Hurley will also hope to be in contention. The Greens Mary White won the final seat in 2007 by just 649 votes but is unlikely to be in contention in 2011. Sinn Féin should improve on the 3.8% achieved in 2007 but hardly enough to take a seat, especially with two candidates in the field. Fine Gael is assured of two seats with Labour and Fianna Fáil likely to take one each. The final seat will come down to a battle between the three main parties. If Fine Gael are heading for single party government then they could emulate Fianna Fail’s 2007 performance and win three out of five.

Sean Donnelly's Prediction: 1FF, 3FG, 1LB (Phil Hogan FG, John Paul Phelan FG, Ann Phelan LB, John McGuinness FF, Pat Deering FG). Two FG & LB Gains from FF & GP.

2007 General Election

Fianna Fáil entered the 2007 campaign intent on holding the three seats they had won in 2002. On that occasion they secured three out of the four available seats (Labour’s Seamus Pattison having been automatically returned as Ceann Comhairle) through Liam Aylward, John McGuinness and MJ Nolan.

The retirement of Fianna Fáil TD Liam Aylward seemed to put their chances of doing so in jeopardy, but in fact the party vote dropped only slightly to 47.7% and impressively, both John McGuinness and Bobby Aylward, brother of Liam, were elected on the first count. MJ Nolan also performed well and attracted transfers to take the fourth seat.

Fine Gael’s vote, which had slumped to just 21.9% in 2002, bounced to 29.6% in 2007. It was not enough to secure a second seat for the party: as expected, Phil Hogan was re-elected, but Senator John Paul Phelan, in out-performing his Carlow based running-mate Fergal Browne, narrowly missed out.

Labour ran two candidates - Jim Townsend from Carlow and Michael O’Brien from Kilkenny – but their combined vote fell from 13.2% to 9.3%.

Mary White secured a seat for the Green Party by attracting large numbers of transfers, despite garnering just 8% of first preferences.

Kathleen Funchion of Sinn Féin performed credibly with 3.8% of first preference votes.

2002 Turnout: 63.6%
2007 Turnout: 67.0%

Oireachtas Constituency Information

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