Who'll get what in the new cabinet?

Updated: 11:34, Monday, 7 March 2011

Fearghal O'Connor takes a look through the potential candidates for the cabinet posts.

1 of 1

Enda Kenny - Taoiseach elect

Fearghal O'Connor takes a look through the potential candidates for the cabinet posts.

There is much focus on the tough negotiations that Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore's government faces in Europe but, on the home front, there are some difficult conversations ahead in the next few days for both men as they pick the new cabinet.

Ministerial jobs are likely to be handed out on Wednesday and it is safe to say that not everyone in the running for high office will get what they want or, indeed, anything at all. The two party leaders must decide who will be the key members of a government that will face scrutiny from day one.

Ability is just one of a number of factors that the party leaders will have to consider. For starters, a modicum of gender balance in the cabinet is important, not least since the Dáil has lost a number of high profile female TD's.

But if gender balance wins approval, geographical balance wins votes. Straddling the Dublin / rural divide with his choice of ministers is going to be a major test of political skill for a Mayo Taoiseach elect.

So with 15 places in cabinet and so many factors to consider, that leaves very little room to manoeuvre for the Taoiseach elect. Even less when he won't have any say over a chunk of those seats. FG has slightly more than two to one the amount of seats as Labour (76 to 37).

Many analysts believe this means there will be ten Fine Gael Ministers and five Labour. But others say that the price for Fine Gael of controlling the key Department of Finance portfolio will be to give up some seats at the cabinet table. One close observer says an eight - seven split in favour of Fine Gael is possible.

It is safe to say the Leader and Deputy Leader of Labour, Eamon Gilmore and Joan Burton, will both get seats at the cabinet table. The other two members of the party's post-election negotiating team, Brendan Howlin and Pat Rabbitte, are also highly likely to get jobs. That means that there may only be one other ministerial job for Labour and the favourite to take this would be Ruairi Quinn, according to one political analyst.

But straight away, this Labour line-up brings into play the geographical variable. Four out of five of the Labour favourites represent Dublin constituencies. The other contenders on the Labour side are likely to be Sean Sherlock and Ciaran Lynch, both from Cork and Roisin Shortall. But, in reality, it is hard to look beyond the Labour stalwarts of Gilmore, Burton, Howlin, Rabbitte and Quinn. This means that before Fine Gael even nominate anyone, the cabinet could have a very Dublin hue. Bad news for any of Mr Kenny's Dublin based ministerial hopefuls.

Fine Gael's Deputy Leader James Reilly seems to be a certainty to be a minister. The remainder of the Fine Gael negotiating team, Phil Hogan, Alan Shatter and Michael Noonan can also fully expect to get the nod. With Shatter and Reilly both from the capital, that means six seats in cabinet are likely to be in Dublin hands before the real horse trading even begins.

And, so far, that also means just one woman, Joan Burton, is a certainty for a top job. Enda Kenny will consider this as he makes his choices. Top of his list of possible female ministers is likely to be Frances Fitzgerald. Catherine Byrne is also likely to be considered, as is Lucinda Creighton who has garnered a high profile amongst voters.

But of course, geography may well interfere with any such plan given that Fitzgerald, Byrne and Creighton are all Dublin based. Creighton's name also throws up another key consideration that will only be whispered but will certainly be important: last June's failed heave against Kenny. Everything may be sweetness and light within the victorious Fine Gael ranks now but party leaders have long memories and loyalty is rewarded in politics.

The same consideration may also hold back Simon Coveney who was at the forefront of the coup. Yet the selection of the Corkman would help with geographical balance. The fact that Coveney was also central to the formulation of Fine Gael's New Era policy, which envisages serious reform in energy and other semi-State sectors, gives him a shot. But if, as part of the deal to form a coalition, Labour succeeds in putting the breaks on Fine Gael's ambitions to revolutionise the semi-State sector, then Coveney may have to wait for another day.

So far no mention of Leo Varadkar, Richard Bruton or Brian Hayes. All three are from Dublin and all three were key players in the move against Kenny. Incorporating them into the cabinet would take real skill from the Taoiseach elect but leaving any of them out raises its own challenges.

Sitting on the back benches just as their party finally gains power is likely to prove a frustrating experience for those who lose out. Kenny will know that may mean storing up internal strife for the future. And the Taoiseach elect will know that at a time of crisis, he needs his very best players on the pitch.

Of course, the committee system has always proved a useful outlet for talented politicians overlooked at Cabinet. This may prove to be as pressing an argument as any other for the next government to transform the committee system into something truly meaningful as part of any political reform package.

If talented politicians find themselves in a committee role with new and exciting possibilities, the lack of a cabinet seat may not be felt quite so keenly. At least that is what Kenny and Gilmore may be hoping.

Taoiseach

No arguments here. Eamon Gilmore may have had the posters but Enda Kenny gets the job. That is about the only job in the cabinet that can be predicted with certainty.

Finance

As always, finance is the key portfolio even if now it is deemed as something of a poisoned chalice. The programme for government will see the department split into two ministries - one will handle fiscal planning and the banks, the other public service reform and the estimates process.

Fine Gael's Michael Noonan is odds on to become the minister with responsibility for the banks, while Joan Burton is tipped as the public service reform minister. Some believe, however, that Pat Rabbitte will be favoured by Gilmore for the role.

The two roles take on added significance because both ministers will, along with the Tánaiste and the Taoiseach, be part of the new Economic Management Council. This will have a central role in deciding economic policy.

So a Labour Minister could be given responsibility for public service reform and thus row back on Fine Gael's goal to achieve 30,000 voluntary redundancies, while a Fine Gael Minister may have control over fiscal affairs.

Whatever happens, Noonan is the out and out favourite to be Minister for Finance. Burton could reasonably expect to be front runner for Labour but some believe Rabbitte may actually be Gilmore's choice.

Enterprise, Trade and Innovation

It is likely that whichever party takes the finance portfolio, the other will get this key department. Burton or Rabbitte, whichever of them does not get the public service reform job, will be a strong contender. On the Fine Gael side it is likely that both Leo Varadkar and Richard Bruton would be interested the position and if Kenny handed it to Bruton it would help heal any remaining wounds.

Foreign Affairs

Ruairi Quinn has been tipped by some for this, while Brendan Howlin was Labour's spokesperson on Human Rights while in opposition. Don't rule out Eamon Gilmore himself deciding to combine this role with that of Tánaiste, particularly as there is such emphasis on rebuilding relationships with Europe. On the Fine Gael side, Sean Barrett was foreign affairs spokesperson in recent times and is close to Kenny but that may not be enough to get him a top job in a cabinet with a lengthy queue at the door.

Education and Skills

Again Quinn's name comes up here as a possibility and some say it is the job he has his eye on. It might suit Labour to have this portfolio given it could then protect its cherished free college fees legacy, thereby courting the young vote that will be so crucial in the next election as the party seeks to protect its left flank after a period in government. On the Fine Gael side, Fergus O'Dowd has been very active in his role as education spokesperson. The Louth TD is by no means a definite to get a portfolio.

Health and Children

This one looks to be a shoo in for Fine Gael's deputy leader James Reilly. Nevertheless, the programme for government definitely has a hue of Labour policy on health issues. Labour's Jan O'Sullivan was her party's spokesperson on health in the last Dáil and perhaps a related junior minister role is a possibility. She was singled out for praise by Howlin when he spoke to the Labour Conference on Sunday.

Social Protection

It is impossible to say with any certainty where other portfolios will go but Labour might be happy to get control of the Department of Social Protection. Roisin Shortall was quick to put her hand up for this job on the day of the election and she is Labour spokesperson on this area. But Mayo TD Michael Ring was her counterpart within Fine Gael and, following his staunch support of Kenny as party leader last June, he is likely to have his eye on a front bench seat.

Environment, Heritage and Local Government

This portfolio is one that could have a great impact on Fine Gael's rural heartlands. There is also the potential for a serious programme of reform at local government level. Could it be the perfect home for Phil Hogan, who was Fine Gael spokesperson on this in the last Dáil?

Agriculture, Fisheries and Food

His role in Environment notwithstanding, some within Fine Gael believe that Agriculture would suit Phil Hogan. As Minister for Agriculture he would spend his time travelling the country, thus allowing him to fulfil his other key role - keeping tabs on the grass roots. Or so the theory goes.

Tourism, Culture and Sport

Jimmy Deenihan is probably a likely choice in this portfolio, not least because of his time on the Kerry football team of the 1970s. But geography too works in his favour, coming as he does from one of the most tourism dependent constituencies in the country. His newly-elected party colleague and Louth inter-county football manager Peter Fitzpatrick would no doubt would dearly love the job.

Justice and Law Reform

With his strong legal background, Alan Shatter is an obvious choice for this position. But some observers are also tipping him for the post of Attorney General, which would have the added bonus of freeing up a seat at Cabinet for Kenny. Brendan Howlin acted as Labour's spokesperson on Constitutional Matters and Law Reform in the last Dáil and would no doubt fancy the role.

Transport

Over the past ten years or so this department was always one that came with a big cheque book and plenty of ribbon cutting duties. Not any more. The new minister will have to pick through the ashes of Transport 21. Simon Coveney or Leo Varadkar would probably enjoy the challenge of reforming CIE. Dublin Central based Joe Costello is Labour's transport spokesperson and few constituencies face as many transport issues as his.

Communications, Energy and Natural Resources

If portfolio's were handed out on the basis of enthusiasm and knowledge of a subject Simon Coveney would be a certainty for this job. He is the chief instigator of much of the nuts and bolts policy that makes up Fine Gael's New Era plan. If he gets this job it could be a sign that big reforms will be attempted.

Defence

Meath East TD Dominic Hannigan is Labour spokesperson on Defence but he probably does not fancy his chances. Neither will Fine Gael's spokesperson David Stanton and this portfolio will likely go to a heavy hitter who misses out on a big economic portfolio.

Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs

The community and equality element of this portfolio is likely to appeal to Roisin Shortall but whether this department will even exist in this format is an open question.

Ceann Comhairle

Sean Barrett is close to Kenny and long serving. His selection would maximise the chances of gaining another seat in Dún Laoghaire the next time out. Dinny McGinley, from Donegal, is another possibility and his command of the Irish language would be a help. Howlin might be a good bet if the job goes to Labour.