Swiss growth evaporates in second quarter as trade slows

Tuesday 02 September 2014 15.03
The Swiss National Bank currently forecasts growth of 2% for this year
The Swiss National Bank currently forecasts growth of 2% for this year

Switzerland's economy unexpectedly stalled in the second quarter, showing zero growth as trade took a hit from stagnation in its main export market Europe and falling construction spending. 

The data, missing forecasts of a 0.5% lift from the previous quarter, was the weakest reported by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs in two years.

It suggested forecasts for the rest of the year may need to be cut. 

The growth prospects of the export-orientated country are closely tied to the fortunes of the euro zone, where the impact of the crisis in Ukraine is weighing. 

The Swiss economy has been supported by the Swiss National Bank's nearly three-year-old policy of capping the franc at 1.20 to the euro to stave off the threat of deflation and recession. 

Net trade took a toll as Swiss exports rose less than imports, while investment in construction fell 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and government spending also declined. 

Private consumption posted growth of just 0.2% suggesting domestic demand, which has supported the economy through periods of weak demand for exports over the past year, was slowing. 

Recent data has also pointed to dimmer prospects for the Swiss economy. Factory activity expanded at a slower pace in August as order books shrank, suggesting manufacturers may have taken too rosy a view of the economy's prospects. 

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) currently forecasts growth of 2% for this year. In a weekend newspaper interview, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan cautioned the central bank may cut its economic outlook at its meeting in September, given increased macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. 

The franc has strengthened in recent weeks towards the 1.20 franc per euro threshold, posing a further headwind for Swiss exporters, as investors speculate the European Central Bank may further loosen monetary policy in the euro zone to stimulate growth. 

Jordan said at the weekend that the SNB stood ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to defend the cap, which remained "absolutely central." 

Swiss gross domestic product rose by 0.6% year on year, missing expectations of 1.7% growth and down from a revised 2.1% in the prior quarter, the State Secretariat for Economics said today.