Opinion polls indicate Yes ahead in referendum campaign

Monday 28 May 2012 12.57
Both sides are hoping to convince undecided voters
Both sides are hoping to convince undecided voters

Three new opinion polls indicate the Yes side is ahead in the fiscal treaty referendum.

The last polls of the campaign will be carried in tomorrow's Sunday Independent, Sunday Times, and Sunday Business Post.

For the Sunday Times, Behaviour and Attitudes found 45% will vote Yes, an increase of three points since their last poll five weeks ago.

30% said they will vote No, also up three, with 24% still undecided. When undeclared voters are excluded, Yes leads 60-40.

In the Sunday Independent, Millward Brown Lansdowne found 42% will vote Yes, up five points since their last poll 11 days ago.

The No side is up four to 28%, with 31% undecided. When undecided voters are excluded Yes again leads 60-40.

Red C, for the Sunday Business Post, has the Yes side on 49%, down one point since the last Red C poll for Paddy Power ten days ago.

No is on 35%, up four. The number of undecided voters is down three to 16%. When they are excluded that leaves a 58 to 42 lead for the Yes side.

Canvassing intensifies ahead of vote

Taoiseach Enda Kenny has said he is confident of a Yes vote in the referendum, but said turnout would be crucial and that complacency was the enemy of referenda.

On a canvass in Swords in Dublin this afternoon, Mr Kenny said the Government would continue its level of activity and explain what the treaty was about in the run-up to the vote.

Meanwhile, Socialist MEP Paul Murphy has said the referendum will be decided in this final week and he believes people are moving to the No side.

He said it comes down to a question of whether people vote based on fear or vote in anger and in opposition to austerity.

Speaking as he was campaigning in Dublin city centre today, Mr Murphy said the Yes side was lying about access to the permanent bailout facility, the ESM.

He said that in the event of a No vote, there could be access to the ESM or the existing EFSF.

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin today said he expects a much slower canvass in the final days before the referendum.

He says he is spending more time trying to persuade those who are concerned or confused about the agreement.

Speaking to RTÉ News as he was campaigning in support of the treaty in Wilton and Bishopstown in Co Cork, Mr Martin said he was encountering far more Yes supporters than No supporters, but there was a considerable number of undecided voters.

He said many people who have not yet made up their mind on how they will vote were coming forward to discuss what the treaty meant for Ireland.

Mr Martin said the fundamental concern was how the country could come out of the economic crisis, employment and mortgage arrears, and they were focusing on how the State would be funded after 2013.

Mr Martin accused Sinn Féin of being dishonest in its treaty campaign.

He said Sinn Féin had misled people with selective quotes from economists, and he claimed they had deliberately misquoted from the treaty document in advancing an argument that there would be funding if we vote No.

He said the big lie of the campaign was that it was an austerity treaty, because if Ireland votes No we leave ourselves without any definite access to funding, and any alternative source would be more expensive, therefore, a No vote equals faster cuts.

Sinn Féin Leader Gerry Adams told delegates at his party’s Ard Fhéis that when considering what way to vote people need to ask themselves if the austerity of recent budgets led to jobs and growth, and the answer is no.

If you accept that, he said, you should vote No.

Austerity, he added, is not working now and will not start working on 1 June.

Neither will it bring stability or certainty, he said. Austerity means more cuts, he said, and increased charges.

He said if you do not like the policies of the Government you can sack them or re-elect them.

You will not be able to do that with unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats in Frankfurt and Brussels.

That is undemocratic, he said, and he called on people not to give up their power, or their democratic rights.

He also called on people not to write austerity into the constitution.

Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fáil have not offered any positive arguments in favour of the treaty, he said, adding that the Taoiseach will not even debate the issue.

This is not leadership, he said.

He said the Government is also out of step with the rest of Europe; that other EU states are delaying ratification because they know the mood in Europe is changing.

Mr Adams said Mr Kenny and Mr Gilmore are out of their depth, and they cannot be trusted on this treaty.

It claims, he said, that we will be locked out of funds if citizens vote No, and he said that that is not true.

He said the legal mandate of the ESM is very clear.

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