French voters are set to deliver a sharp blow to President Nicolas Sarkozy this weekend in regional polls that will provide his final electoral test before the 2012 presidential race.
Surveys point to a crushing defeat for Mr Sarkozy's centre-right UMP party with the opposition Socialists aiming for a clean sweep of the 22 mainland regions in the two-round election on 14 and 21 March.
Unemployment has climbed to 10.1%, public finances are under huge strain and Mr Sarkozy's 'action man' image has been worn down by internal party squabbling and damaging rows over issues ranging from lavish executive pay to immigration.
The president has stayed out of the election campaign, in line with the French convention that the head of state should be above the everyday political fray, and he has played down speculation of a cabinet reshuffle in the event of defeat.
'It's a big problem in France, mixing up issues all the time,' Mr Sarkozy said on a visit to eastern France this week. 'Regional elections, regional consequences. National elections, national consequences,' he said.
'We have to stop this instability where we're changing ministers all the time,' he said.
However, growing signs of tension between Mr Sarkozy and his Prime Minister François Fillon have suggested the poll woes are taking their toll.
Regional authorities are responsible for issues such as local transport, maintaining school buildings, apprenticeships and local economic initiatives, but voters appear to be looking firmly at the government in Paris.
Frederic Dabi, director of the opinion and strategy section of pollsters Ifop said: 'In our polling, we've been asking a series of questions on the main regional issues and systematically, jobs have come out on top, even though regional councillors don't have any major competence in this area'.
'It's another sign of this apparent 'nationalisation' of the election,' he said.
Surveys were taken before rumours surfaced on the internet and spread to the European press that Mr Sarkozy and his wife Carla Bruni-Sarkozy were having affairs.
The speculation, however, has not entered mainstream French media and is not expected to influence the election.
President Sarkozy has pledged to push on with sensitive reforms to the pension and justice systems but a slide in his approval ratings to a low of 36% has raised questions about how bold he can be in the run-up to the next presidential election in 2012.
As well as the UMP and Socialists, numerous smaller parties are also running, from Greens to centrists, the far right National Front and far left communist and Trotskyist groups.
A CSA poll taken earlier this month found the Socialists leading the UMP by 31 to 27% in voting intentions for the first round.
In the second round run-off, when the two top candidates collect votes from the smaller parties, the vote for the left would be much stronger. The survey pointed to overall support of 52% for the left against 28% for the right.
Polls suggest that the right could hope to hold on to the eastern region of Alsace but are likely to lose their other regional foothold, Corsica.
The main uncertainty appears to be the unusually high level of abstention expected, with a separate survey suggesting that as many as one in two will not bother to vote.
