Lending growth slows to 5-year low

Updated: 22:24, Thursday, 31 July 2008

Lending growth in the economy slowed to a five-year low in June, according to the Central Bank.

1 of 1Central Bank - Residential mortgage lending at lowest since 1991
Central Bank - Residential mortgage lending at lowest since 1991

Overall, private sector credit grew at an annual rate of 14.3%, down from 15.1% in May.

However, annual growth in residential mortgage lending slowed from 10.9% in May to 10.2%, the lowest since 1991.

The Central Bank said residential mortgages grew by €893m from May, giving a monthly average of just over €900m for the first six months of the year, more than a third lower than in the same period last year.

Growth in non-mortgage lending moved up from 18.3% in May to 20.2%.

Economy extremely weak - NCB

Meanwhile, a new NCB Stockbrokers report says the Irish economy is in 'an extremely weakened position' and predicts a recession this year.

It says growth in gross domestic product will fall by 1.6% this year and there will be no growth next year. It also expects growth in gross national product to be negative this year and next.

Problems in the housing market and internationally the strong euro, the credit crunch, high commodity prices and slower global growth are all factors that could contribute to sending the Irish economy into recession this year.

NCB predicts in its quarterly economic outlook that non-residential building investment will fall this year by 5% and by 12% in 2009. This will lead to a decline in machinery and equipment sales.

Other forecasts have said that despite the slowdown in housing and in consumer and business spending, our exports will get us through the tough times.

But NCB economist Brian Devine says external demand (other countries wanting to import our goods or services), will be weak this year, so export growth is at risk, especially because of economic problems suffered by our main trading partners in the eurozone and in the UK.

On the positive side, NCB says Ireland is still an attractive economy to invest in, with an educated and young population, low taxes and proximity to Europe. NCB says that when the current global slowdown comes to an end we should see investments begin to pour back in to Ireland.

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