The poll, in tomorrow's Irish Examiner, shows that both Fianna Fáil and the PDs, and Fine Gael and Labour, have the backing of 39% of the electorate.
This poll was carried out by Lansdowne Market Research on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, after the calling of the election.
It took place against the backdrop of lot of media attention that was concentrating on the controversy over the Taoiseach's house.
However, it is difficult to establish exactly how the public are reacting to that, because the only poll this can be compared to is the last Lansdowne poll - and that was carried out last September.
Therefore, this poll does not tell us much about how opinion has moved in the past couple of weeks.
1,000 were questioned for the poll, which has the standard margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
These figures exclude the 21% who said they did not know how they were going to vote, and they were then adjusted to take account of how people said they voted in the last election.
The figures are as follows:
- Fianna Fáil are at 37%, down two points since September
- Fine Gael are at 26%, up two
- Labour are at 13%, up three
- The Progressive Democrats are 2%, down four
- The Greens are at 6%, unchanged
- Sinn Féin are at 8%, down one
- Independents and others are at 9%, up three
The figures reinforce three impressions about the election campaign.
Firstly, Fianna Fáil are facing an uphill battle to match its 1997 result, never mind 2002.
Secondly, that Fine Gael and Labour are mounting a very real challenge to the current Government.
And thirdly, that for either of those alternatives to actually get into government, they are very likely to need the support, whether inside or outside the Cabinet, of the Greens, or Sinn Féin, or Independents.
