Teagasc has predicted that most Irish beef and dairy farmers will benefit from the proposed changes to the Common Agricultural Policy.
The Minister for Agriculture, Joe Walsh, welcomed the study and said he wouold refere it to sector consutative groups.
But John Deegan, president of the ICSA, the smaller of the Farm organisations, said its findings meant that it is now necessary for Minister Walsh to change his strategy on CAP reform.
The study published today by FAPRI-Ireland, in which Teagasc is a partner, says the new policies will result in a rapid acceleration in the decline in the number of dairy farmers, and an increase in part-time beef farmers.
The radical changes to the way Europe subsidises its farmers were announced late last year, and the EU is hoping that final negotiations will take place next month.
The reform package seeks to 'decouple' farm subsidies. This would cut the link between EU payments and the amount a farmer produces.
Instead, a single annual payment would be made based on what a farmer had been receiving in certain previous years.
Cuts in subsidies are also planned and the savings would be used to improve environment and food safety measures.
Teagasc economist Thia Hennessy says that if the changes go through, the number of dairy farmers will drop from 26,500 to 15,000 in the next decade.
Average output per farm would rise from 42,000 gallons to 70,000 gallons. The remaining dairy farmers would see income increases of 25%.
Compensatory payments of 20c a gallon from 2008 would be an incentive for some dairy farmers to cease production.
Teagasc says two-thirds of beef farmers would fare better, with some, mainly small, producers getting increases of 50%.
But larger farmers and those involved in calf production would lose out. About 10% of beef farmers would completely de-stock and allow their land to lie fallow according to Teagasc, although this number is much lower than had been predicted.
Teagasc says that overall the reforms would lead to a more competitive and efficient industry, and that incomes would drop by 10% in the next decade if there were no changes.
The FAPRI-Ireland Partnership is comprised of Teagasc, a consortium of Irish Universities, and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri in the USA.
