Around 40% of farmers believe that proposed changes in the EU Common Agricultural Policy would have no impact on their incomes if implemented, according to a new survey.
European Union Agriculture Commissioner Franz Fischler proposed the changes last July.
The survey, conducted by Teagasc, shows that 20% of farmers feel the changes would lead to a reduction in income, while 9% felt their incomes would increase.
A total of 34% did not know what impact the changes would have.
The survey, conducted among a representative sample of 1,100 farmers in recent weeks, shows that farmers involved in a combination of milk and beef production are most pessimistic about the impact of the changes. Forty-one per cent of this group feels that incomes would drop.
Results unveiled at Teagasc conference
The results of the survey were outlined by Teagasc economist, Liam Connolly, at the Teagasc Situation and Outlook conference in Dublin.
The EU proposals involve a switch from supports on animals and crops to an area-based system. The level of payment received by each farmer per hectare would be related to a historical reference period.
The EU support system for dairying would not be affected by the new changes.
The Teagasc survey also reveals that farmers would reduce beef and cow numbers by around 12% if the new proposals were implemented. Sheep numbers would fall by 18% in western counties and 12% in eastern counties.
In contrast, dairy farmers in the south and east said they would increase cow numbers by 5% while those in the west said they would reduce cow numbers by 2%.
Investment plans surveyed
The survey also looked at farmers' investment plans for 2003. The results show that 25,000 farmers plan to invest almost €300m in their farms next year. A similar survey last year showed that 24,000 farmers planned to invest €345m in 2002.
However, Liam Connolly pointed out that actual investment in 2002 was much higher than planned. A total of 38,500 farmers invested just over €500m on their farms during the past year. Machinery was the biggest area of investment, with a total of €240m spent by farmers during the past year.
Mr Connolly said that if the investment pattern in 2002 is repeated next year, total investment could be over €400m compared to the €300m indicated by farmers in our survey.
The survey also shows that 83% of farmers are confident of having sufficient feed for their animals this winter. A total of 14% said they faced a shortage of winter feed while 3% did not know.
Only 2% of farmers said they are interested in converting their farms to organic production while 11% of farmers aged 55 to 66 said they planned to avail of the early retirement scheme.
Dairy farmers have the highest interest in retirement, with almost one-quarter of those aged 55-66 stating they planned to join the early retirement scheme.
