Selection Gives Ireland Best Chance of Success?

by Brendan Cole

So, four changes – but is this selection a ‘gamble’ in the strictest sense or is it, in fact, the best percentage play? If we discount the idea that change is always a risk - it really isn't - than the latter is probably the case.

Kidney and his coaching team know that there are dangers between Ireland and the Slam and this XV is best seen as an attempt to ensure Ireland have the best chance of seeing them off.

Overall, this selection hints that Ireland see inertia, conservatism and, possibly, a lack of a genuine sense of fair play within the group as the principal threats to Ireland’s continued development. This selection addresses all of those issues and by changing four instead of one or two, Kidney and co also sideline the perception that one or two players are being singled out.

Lineout and back play at risk?

Jamie Heaslip - form number eight?It is not without risk: the nightmare scenario would see a lineout malfunction, continued indifferent form in general play from Ronan O'Gara at out-half and a dip in performance from Brian O’Driscoll. On the plus side, having those four recent frontliners on the bench ought to mean that remedies to each of those problems are in theory within relatively easy reach.

It must also be said that this selection is hard on the four that started the previous three games. Ronan O’Gara will have the opportunity to resurrect his form at the end of what ought to be improved service from Peter Stringer. Just outside him, Gordon D’Arcy, not Paddy Wallace, could well be the man who will get the most out of that.

Jamie Heaslip has probably been the best number eight in the Championship while Jerry Flannery’s sure throwing in has enabled Ireland to establish a formidable platform out of touch. As with, Paddy Wallace, there are shades of Tomás O’Leary possibly suffering for the sins of his out-half.

Selection - the 'right kind of fear'

Ideally, this selection will light those players up a little with the following week’s clash against Wales in mind. Others in the squad may also experience a hint of what you might call the ‘right kind of fear’.

A great deal of Ireland’s shockers in the past have a ‘let’s not lose this game’ mindset behind them and rugby is a particularly unforgiving game when a team takes the field with that attitude.

Kidney, who, it shouldn't be forgotten, was a maths teacher and career guidance counsellor in a previous life, has selected a team that maximises Ireland's chances of succes by ensuring that the players who start this game and the next will seek to play it positively.

 
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Comments:

Don't really think the selection weakens the team overall. It looks like their is a series of trade offs in the selection. Best's ability in the loose and scrum for Flannery's ability out of touch is one. Leamy's abrasiveness for Heaslip's broken field running is another. Kidney knows that Scotland are going to slow every ball down if given the chance so that's why Stringer is there due to his quality service. I think and with fitness proved D'arcy was always going to come into the side. There could still be changes for Wales even if we beat the Scots.

Posted by Willie on March 11, 2009 at 12:55 PM GMT #

Good call by Kidney. This is exactly what they need. They were'nt impressive against England, and they need to be taken out of there comfort zone. It will keep everyone on there toes, if they don't perform, there are excellent alternative's on the bench.

Posted by Bill on March 11, 2009 at 12:59 PM GMT #

These are positive changes and will not only result in quicker ball to O'Gara but will also shore up the middle as D'Arcy is much stronger defender. This will also lessen pressure on O'Gara to defend up the middle. Leamy's return should see an increase in Wallace's dynamic plays as Leamy will do more than his share of the grunt work freeing up Wallace to play looser. Worry about the lineout and Best's throwing but Kidney will be quick to fix this if the throwing is too far off.

Posted by Kieran on March 11, 2009 at 01:05 PM GMT #

i think heaslip being replaced is the only possible eye raiser here as all in the all the back row as a unit has been excellent and complement each other very well. ALthough leamy is an excellent player he is not a natural 8 and certainly not an attacking number 8. that said ferris wouldnt have deserved to be dropped either and leamy deserves some game time. If we play well we will win against a limited scotland side and then the question of who plays against wales will come into the equation. a breath of fresh air compared to the o'sullivan era regardless of what happens from here on in.

Posted by daveyk on March 11, 2009 at 01:46 PM GMT #

Whats all this talk about a quicker ball from Stringer. Not true from what we've seen at Munster this season from O' Leary. Stringer will however provide a better pass which hopefully cure O' Gara's awful form which I think is this teams main problem at present. We will definately need O' Leary's defensive ability against Wales though. Good to see D'arcy starting. He has impressed when he has come on. Only choice I don't understand is Best on for Flannery. The irish scrum has been solid and Flannerys line-out throwing faultless for the most part which is not something that can be said for Best.

Posted by Seamus on March 11, 2009 at 01:47 PM GMT #

It seems to me that there is a knock effect in the changes made to the team, by bringing in Stringer to help speed up ruck ball, you consequently put more defensive pressure on O' Gara which is perhaps alleviated by bringing in D'arcy and Leamy to sure up around 8 and 9. Also Parisse, not Heaslip has been the best number 8 in the championship

Posted by fran on March 11, 2009 at 02:27 PM GMT #

Scotland have made changes in the backs as well, this could be a really open and exciting game of rugby.

Posted by john gallagher on March 11, 2009 at 02:51 PM GMT #

You got to feel sorry for Jamie Heaslip and I'm a munster man! Still Im a fan of change too

Posted by Andymcandy on March 11, 2009 at 03:09 PM GMT #

best is a gamble. his line out throwing is very shaky, if not poor. changes are to blood a few guys, in what should be an easy win for ireland. there i've said it. an easy win ! anyway i predict all four others will be back for the wales game barring a very strong performance from d'arcy who is really the only one in contention in my humble opinion. heaslip wasn't dropped - rested, he's been outstanding likewise flannery (both to be lions ?)

Posted by gunther on March 11, 2009 at 04:58 PM GMT #

Have to agree with gunther. No doubt at least Heaslip and Flannery are being rested. I think Kidney is taking the Alex Ferguson approach. Even Rooney and Ronaldo get rested before big games.

Posted by skyblue41 on March 11, 2009 at 05:42 PM GMT #

Agree with Gunther on most of his points although I don't think Flannery has been outstanding. In the loose he has tended to be a bit headless. Stringer does not deliver quicker ball. He is a quicker and better passer but he flaps about for a long time at the breakdown before passing. I would have liked to see Reddan given a run if we really were freshening things up - also with a view to RWC2011 when Stringer won't be an option. All told though, it should freshen things up. Kidney is a shrewd man and the next two games will really test his mettle as a national coach.

Posted by zeleneye on March 11, 2009 at 07:19 PM GMT #

Stringer at 9 SHOULD give us quicker ball and Darc could open up. But I think unlike Italy or England - Scotland actually believe then can beat us, and that is where our biggest danger comes from. If we play like Croker then we could find ourselves in a whole heap of trouble. Big pressure on Best to hit OConnell and OCallaghan all the time every time. I think we should have too much for them but alot depends on Leamy, Wallace and Ferris at the breakdown against the Scots. Lets hope for a dry wind free day and some quick ball of the top of a good lineout. Come on Ireland

Posted by Anthony M on March 11, 2009 at 08:51 PM GMT #

If Ireland are to win a Grand Slam then they will need 22 players to make it happen so winning and making changes has to happen.Beat Scotland and on to Wales where all players will need to be sharp in all areas of play and all skills will need to be applied when called upon. The changes for the Scotland game are very important for morale-confidence and staying sharp throughout the party coaches and staff included. Winning will contintue to happen if Kidney continues to approach the challenges with the same attitude.

Posted by Gerry Slattery on March 11, 2009 at 09:18 PM GMT #

What does gunther mean by "blood a few guys". There's nearly 300 caps between all these boys. Around 3 times as many as the guys they're replacing! They're all on good form, playing well for provinces that are all going well. Without exception, their introduction off the bench had no negative effect on the way we were performing. This is a great call by the coach. It shows that not only does he think we can win but that, at last, the man at the helm is thinking long term, keeping our quality international players fresh, honest, on their toes and hungry, as opposed to the short term win or fear of losing stagnant selection policy of the recent past. Also, what's the difference between a "quicker" pass and a "better" pass? Slow ball from a ruck is not solely down to the scrumhalf's pass. There a number of other factors effecting it, for instance, the team may be planning several phases ahead and sorting out carriers to run onto it. Woah! Here endeth the lesson. I think Scotland are going to try the same tactics as Italy and the perpetually overrated English. Trying to grind down our game, live off-side(they seem to always get away with it in the twilight zone of Murrayfield),out muscle us and hope we'll get rattled and make mistakes and then Chris "the boot" Patterson will kick the goals. YAWN! It will fail. Come on Ireland!

Posted by Alan on March 11, 2009 at 09:24 PM GMT #

I think the four changes made by Kidney for the Scotland match are excellent.I am quite content also, to see Best given a shot. He is an outstanding scrummager and this attribute, judged against the rough time the Scotland scrum handed-out to the Italians and our own efforts against Italy in that area, his selection,I feel, may be seen as a plus for us. Ireland to win by twenty!

Posted by Tom Kearney on March 11, 2009 at 10:52 PM GMT #

what a luxury it is to be able to replace 4 excelent players with 4 other excellent players which brings me to the real issue that few seem to be realy adressing, which is what to do with O'Gara if he continues on his downward slide just as we saw at the world cup. If he has another implosion as he did against England, the delighted Wales will focus on him as a huge part of their game plan and will be waiting to tear him apart and make sure that he has absolutely no chance to finally get things right in the last game of the championship. In these circumstances, with a disabled, humbled and confused O'Gara, the remaining Irish 14, as good as they are, will be quickly and harshly reminded just how good this Wales team can be, especially in Cardiff.

Posted by ger on March 12, 2009 at 06:13 AM GMT #

Leamy brings a brutal physical intensity to the game that Heaslip cannot. I agree with the changes and also I'd be keen to see O'Gara replaced by Paddy Wallace after half time. ROG has suffered imo because he's being asked to be more physical and stand closer to the opposition defensive lines. Paddy's well able for this type of confrontation and has an excellent offload - with good lines being run off him, the opposition would have very little time to react.Having a no. 10 with the a reliable ability to get over the gainline would have Warren Gatland scratching his head for a week's time, irrespective of the result against the Scots.

Posted by Niall on March 12, 2009 at 01:47 PM GMT #

This is a good selection. Remember what we've gone through, years without any change in selections under Eddie O'Sullivan and that must have destroyed morale in the squad. This shakes things up and keeps it fresh for a start, and shows we have depth that will keep the Scots (and the Welsh) guessing. Kidney is the man with the plan as always.

Posted by Phil Harte on March 12, 2009 at 02:57 PM GMT #

Certainly it is not a gamble playing all four as they have proved when they come on that they are well capable of maintaining the intensity of the pack which has been the trademark of the Irish in the 6 nations so far!

Posted by Brian Hanamy on March 12, 2009 at 03:07 PM GMT #

I don't understand all this talk about it going to be an easy win for Ireland. Scotland never has been (and more than likely won't be on saturday) an easy game for us. If scotland are as poor as they have let on at times, then we have a habit of stepping down to their level. That said, they have a strong scrum, and are starting to get some talent in the backs - Evans brothers, Danielli et al. I think if it opens up (and doesn't degenerate into a ping pong match) it could be a close, and possibly exciting, game. Not holding my breath though

Posted by Brian on March 12, 2009 at 03:38 PM GMT #

Does anybody think that with Wales fielding a lesser side against Italy, Ireland now have an opportunity to put the championship out of reach of the Welsh on points diff? Currently Ireland +39, Wales +16, France +5. If wales fail to win by 15 or more against Italy, and Ireland beat Scotland by (a conservative) 7, Wales would require a 15+ margin of victory aginst Ireland to win the championship. Wouldn't put it past the French however to knock up 40+ against the Italians in Rome

Posted by Adrian C on March 12, 2009 at 05:34 PM GMT #

My thinkin is Wales seem to be resting players for the Ireland match? Maybe, not sure, but those changes Gatland has made I would not bet against being changed back for the Irish game. Is Declan Kidney thinkin the same where Jamie Heaslip would be more effective playing against wales when given more freedom playing against a far more attacking team? Best gives more power, Stringer a half second quicker ball, Darcy is just being given more game time and is preferred, Leamy is there for a dogfight. these may all be changed back to suit a wales team hell bent on attacking if points comes into it and Ireland requiring lighter and more gain line breaking players? My opinion only!

Posted by Bryan on March 12, 2009 at 11:04 PM GMT #

The only change I'm worried about is best. Throwing has been dire in his appearances so far. I think the backs are going to run A LOT of ball.

Posted by JJM on March 12, 2009 at 11:55 PM GMT #

My thinkin is Wales seem to be resting players for the Ireland match? Maybe, not sure, but those changes Gatland has made I would not bet against being changed back for the Irish game. Is Declan Kidney thinkin the same where Jamie Heaslip would be more effective playing against wales when given more freedom playing against a far more attacking team? Best gives more power, Stringer a half second quicker ball, Darcy is just being given more game time and is preferred, Leamy is there for a dogfight. these may all be changed back to suit a wales team hell bent on attacking if points comes into it and Ireland requiring lighter and more gain line breaking players? My opinion only!

Posted by Bryan on March 13, 2009 at 12:56 AM GMT #

Its a squad game now and rotation is the name of the game, especially in the Southern Hemisphere . We never had quality replacements before to rotate 4 players. 4 changes come as a surprise - never change a winning team and all that.However, I feel that Kidney was unhappy with the Irish performance against England. Hopefully, though, the Benetiz rotational curse and the Ali McCloud (Who??)mistake of playing the final before you win the semi, doesen't follow us to Murrayfield.

Posted by whackercarthy on March 13, 2009 at 07:31 AM GMT #

i was getting very excited about the prospect of the irish backline having the scots backline for dinner and was dreaming of tries galore and a big win. was getting completely carried away. i mean look at the scottish 10 to 15. it's not great. but then i saw the weather forecast for edinburgh tomorrow. rain ! it will be harder to get the ball away from the strong scottish pack. we used to pray for rain in the old days, now it may seriously hinder us. whats the scottish for sacre bleu ?

Posted by gunther on March 13, 2009 at 04:41 PM GMT #

George, Brent, Conor. Let the Irish Rugby Team keep playing with the super team confidence they have in them. Declan Kidney confirmed as Ireland's new coach on 7 May. Ireland v France 7 Feb Ireland v Italy try by David Wallace no. 7 Ireland v England a win during the 7 o'clock hour Ireland v Scotland -tackle by Irish no. 7 leads to a penalty that Ronan O Gara converts to become the highest scorer -important intercept by Tommy Bowe in the 7th minute of second half -Captain Brian O Driscoll leads the Irish Team to a 7 point win in the penultimate match Wales have already lost in this Six Nations Championship, Ireland have not. Ireland v Wales "God's Seven" to beat the Welsh dragon at Cardiff. And thanks for the use of Croke Park.

Posted by Riain on March 16, 2009 at 10:01 AM GMT #

Player of the Championship - Stephen Ferris. Moment of the Championship - Ferris annihilates Simon Taylor into the ground in the first minute at Murrayfield. The man is a titan.

Posted by James on March 16, 2009 at 11:21 AM GMT #

Can somebody explain why Wales can win tournament by beating us by 13 when the points difference is 25?

Posted by Gavin on March 16, 2009 at 12:14 PM GMT #

Gavin - think of it this way; if Wales win, every point they beat us by would both add a point to their total and take one off ours. It's a 'difference', not a straight lead.

Posted by Brendan Cole on March 16, 2009 at 12:17 PM GMT #

Get it now thanks Brendan!! Should be a cracker!

Posted by Gavin on March 16, 2009 at 12:24 PM GMT #

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