Guinness November Series Blog

by Brendan Cole

Warning: if you are Jonathan Sexton, stop reading NOW. Failure to do so may irrevocably damage your ego. If not, read on…….

FOR Jonathan Sexton, with his first cap against top ranking international opposition a matter of hours away, the sky is the limit; a virginal, unspoiled international career stretches out ahead.

Leaving aside Saturday's match for now, the broader question for Ireland watchers centres on how much the young Leinsterman can improve the team over the next number of years. Given Leinster’s development into a serious force with the 24-year-old at the heart of the team, significant advances are certainly possible.

What does he bring?

It almost goes without saying that like most international out-halves, Sexton is an excellent kicker and passer of the ball. His kicking off the deck in particular has improved over the last 18 months or so – he now delivers a much straighter penalty kick compared to the hooking style he favoured as a younger player. Out of hand, he has also gotten better.

In fact, improvement has very much been a theme of Sexton's last two seasons - it is not all that long since he was taking the majority of the ball he got right up the opposition defensive line before attempting tricky flat passes that frequently just didn't work out. Confusion, and a drop from the Leinster squad to St Mary's and the AIL, followed.

But the issues have by and large been ironed and Sexton is much closer to being the finished product. A huge plus for Ireland is that as well as being good at the basics, Sexton is big – 6’2 and over 14 and a half stone - and quick. Essentially, that means he can act as an extra centre offering a genuine ‘triple threat’ of run, kick or pass.

Game management - decisions and execution

Aside from that core trio of skills, the ideal out-half is also every team's key to the oft-cited but still somewhat murky topic of ‘game management’. Essentially, a good game manager  is relatively predictable to his team-mates, but a mercurial figure to the opposition; he is also the guy who makes bad ball better and more often than not gives the quality ball to someone else. He works the ball up the field.

Judged on the above terms, there are only really two outhalves in world rugby who are filling the 10 role completely at the moment: New Zealand's Dan Carter and Australia’s Matt Giteau. In the eyes of most observers, Carter’s extra size and power and more varied kicking game give him the edge and make him the number one, although some New Zealanders will claim he has declined in the last year or so.

What about the rest?

Of the others at top level nations, Jonny Wilkinson could yet come back to the level of the above pair as on past form he has the kicking and passing skills and a very good break and offload game. However, England’s play in the outside backs has been poor this November and he can’t really be judged to be playing as a complete 10 as things stand. Wilkinson is also judged by some to be currently standing too deep.

Morne Steyn of South Africa kicks superbly and passes well but doesn’t function as a running threat; perfect for South Africa’s limited gameplan, but not a complete player.

Argentina’s Juan Martin Hernandez – once hailed as the best in the world by some - has ample skills and is a superb defender but does not function as the calm fulcrum at the heart of his team. Hernandez is possibly the best rugby player of the 10 contenders, but he is not the best 10. Felipe Contepomi also never quite cracked the conservatism-versus-aggression equation either, though both have been effective in a ‘limited’ out-half role based on kicking long and leading the defensive line up hard.

Stephen Jones - varied threat

Of the 10s at other top level nations, Wales’s Stephen Jones has made himself into a varied threat but his running game is manufactured rather than natural and he requires a top class passing 12 to perform at his very best. Like Steyn, who plays with Fourie Du Preez, he also usually benefits from playing alongside top class scrum-half in Mike Phillips. Currently, he is the best in Europe. James Hook, much like the Argentine pair, tends to take on too much of the good ball for himself - sideways - and arguably doesn’t turn around the really hard situations as effectively as he might.

Though he has improved this November, current French out-half Francois Trinh-Duc has yet to convince he has substance to put beside occasional stylish flashes. Les Bleus’ win over South Africa was based on a supreme pack performance rather than a master-class from the 10 and we still await a truly top class performance.

Reading the above might make you think there is a dearth of quality 10s worldwide but a glance at the history of the game confirms that it was ever thus – there are only ever two or three in each era that truly stand out.

It should also be said that the list comprised some of the very best players in world rugby judged by the very harshest standards.

The central theme is that Sexton's elevation has the potential to give Ireland something extra in the game’s key position.

Whisper it: Sexton is not the 'new Dan Carter', but he is the closest thing in the Northern Hempisphere to one.

Saturday will tell a lot…….