Race to Washington

Six signposts

I’m sitting watching the traffic report on TV and they are saying Washington’s usual traffic mayhem hasn’t materialised today because everyone left home early to vote.

Watching those lines snaking out of polling booths this morning I am struck by the contrast with the first presidential election I covered.

Back in 1996, less than half of all Americans turned up at the polls. Today, I can only guess at the turnout figures but we may well see a modern record set today.

That’s my first signpost of the day. Watch the turnout figure. If it exceeds the modern record of 64% in 1964 we will have witnessed a democratic renewal of historic proportions – no matter who wins.

The second signpost

Pennsylvania. If John McCain win this state (which went Democrat in 2004) the Lazarus scenario is on the table. It would show working-class Democrats are deserting Obama and would make a McCain victory in all those toss-up states, like Ohio and Florida, a realistic possibility.

But remember, given Obama’s almost certain gains tonight in places like Iowa and New Mexico, McCain needs to win Pennsylvania and EVERY toss-up state to win the presidency.  

A very tall order.

The third signpost

The popular vote. Because of the vagaries of the electoral college system, it is possible McCain could still win the presidency but lose the popular vote. It happened in 2000 but in the event of a McCain win, the gap between the popular and electoral college vote would likely be substantial. And that would a real source of tension.

The fourth signpost

Georgia. If Barack Obama wins Georgia this election will be a landslide of historic proportions for Obama. More than that, it will be a political realignment not seen since 1968.

The fifth signpost

Senate races. The Democrats have a real shot of winning a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. That is a big deal. Top of the list of races we need to watch tonight are in Kentucky, Georgia, Minnesota and North Carolina

The Six signpost

The result. I’m afaid you are on your own there. 

Posted at 03:24PM Nov 04, 2008