Sifting through the wreckage

Mark Little
Prime Time

I’ve been going through some of the wreckage of the election and I thought I might share some rough observations.

To begin …

One of the striking things about this election is the divide between urban and rural voters. This may always have been the case, but there is evidence from this election that the divide is getting more pronounced and more consequential for the next few years in our political life.

Look at the councils where Fianna Fáil bucked the prevailing trend and actually increased its vote:

FIANNA FAIL DID BEST

Offaly
Galway
Westmeath

And the party held its losses to a minimum in other councils, in places like Longford.

But there is no doubt where Fianna Fáil actually did worst - in Dublin.

FIANNA FAIL DID WORST

3rd Place in Dublin
Dublin City Council – 18%
Ballyfermot and Drimnagh – 10%
Dublin Central - vote down 32%

Is there evidence of an urban/rural divide here?

When you look at our exit poll you start to see a clear division in broader political preferences at this moment of turmoil in our national life.

When you ask people whether there should be a General Election this year, this is what our pollsters heard.

SHOULD THERE BE AN ELECTION THIS YEAR

National – 55% said yes
Rural – 48% said yes
Urban – 61% said yes

And now look what happens when our exit pollsters asked people how they planned to vote in the next General Election. Once again, a clear divergence between voters in town and country:

PLAN TO VOTE FIANNA FAIL

Rural – 25%
Urban – 18%

It’s not just Fianna Fáil, which runs into this urban/rural divide. Despite its strong showing in Dublin, Fine Gael’s heartland remains rural

PLAN TO VOTE FINE GAEL

Rural – 46%
Urban – 30%

The opposite is the case for the Labour party:

PLAN TO VOTE FOR LABOUR

Rural – 13%
Urban – 28%

And there is also evidence that disillusionment with the big political parties is growing in urban areas at a faster rate. When asked to choose Enda Kenny or Brian Cowen as Taoiseach, a total of 37% of voters said neither. But the disillusionment was deepest in the cities:

NEITHER COWEN NOR KENNY

Rural – 32%
Urban – 40%

So let’s look at how this urban and rural division might impact on the next general election. Here our exit poll suggests our political allegiances look very different depending on where you live.

In truth, it is not so much a rural/urban divide as a division between Dublin and the rest of the country.

For example, look at Fianna Fáil’s deficit when you enter the capital:

IF THERE WAS AN ELECTION TOMORROW?

Vote Fianna Fáil

National – 21%
Dublin – 15%
Dublin deficit – 6%

Clearly, Fine Gael have done very well in these elections in Dublin

FINE GAEL DO WELL IN DUBLIN

Strong performances in bye-elections
Poll topper in Pembroke/Rathmines
Greystones - FG has 55%

But Enda Kenny’s party must also confront a substantial Dublin deficit
 
VOTE FINE GAEL IN NEXT ELECTION

National – 37%
Dublin – 26%
Dublin deficit – 11%

The Labour Party continues to struggle in rural areas but it is gaining in the capital. Our exit poll predicts the scale of its Dublin bonus in the next general election:

LABOUR

National – 21%
Dublin – 32%
Dublin bonus – 11%

And Labour’s first-preference vote went as high as 38% in Dublin South Inner City in the local elections.

But Labour don’t have a clear run.

These elections have been a landmark for parties and candidates further to the left. If there is a broader disillusionment with politics as usual then Dublin is where it is most evident.

REBEL COUNTY?

Maureen O’Sullivan – 27% of first preferences in Dublin Central
Richard Boyd Barrett – 23% in Dún Laoighaire
Socialist party – 18% in Mulhuddart
Left vote is 66% in Crumlin-Kimmage
Left get 70% in Finglas-Ballymun
16% for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil - COMBINED - in Dublin North Inner City